Blizzard warnings west, 50 degrees next week?

"Make no big decisions in Minnesota in March" - Dave Moore, former WCCO-TV News Anchor

My former WCCO-TV colleague Dave Moore was a wise man. If you've endured March in Minnesota enough times you know it can be a cruel month at the end of a seemingly endless winter. April? All is forgiven as warm spring days and greening grass transform the landscape into the Minnesota we pay for each winter.

We earn our springs in Minnesota.

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March is typically more winter than spring here. We average a good 10 inches of snow in March in the metro. So it's no shock that an early March snow is on the way just in time for the annual boys Minnesota State High School Hockey Tournament in St. Paul this week.

A good week to curl up and dig deeper into your "House of Cards" binge marathon?

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Twin Cities NWS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

743 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...ACCUMULATING SNOW FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TUESDAY...

A BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. INTENSE SNOW RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND AND A FEW INCHES WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A 6 HOUR PERIOD LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE WITH THE

HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN

WISCONSIN.

OF EVEN MORE IMPORTANCE IS AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE FREQUENTLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE IN OPEN AREAS.

A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO HUTCHINSON...LE CENTER...AND OWATONNA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

Tournament snow system

Tournament snow "storm" may be a bit generous for our incoming system.

But there will be no doubt that you're in a snowstorm is western and southwest Minnesota by Tuesday afternoon. Gusts to 45 mph and near zero visibility at times. That's blizzard territory.

Here's a look at our incoming system, and the arctic high pressure cell blowing in behind it.

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NOAA

Updated model trends show a similar scenario to what I posted late Sunday night. A general swath of 1 to 3 inches in southern Minnesota and the south metro, with 2 to 4 inch totals favoring the north metro.

I still think the heaviest snow axis with this system will be north of the metro, along an Alexandria-St. Cloud-Duluth line where a good 3 to 6 inches will fall.

Here's the upgraded snowfall output from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System.

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GFS 120 hour snowfall output via wxcaster.com

Here's a more detailed breakdown of weather events this week.

Snow. Freeze. Thaw.

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Weatherspark

 Spring fever outbreak next week?

Last week I said spring fever may come early this year. This week it looks like that wishful thinking (and medium-range meteorology) has traction.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model (output below) is most aggressive with next week's warm-up -- a few days in the 40s with temps soaring into the mid 50s next week. That may be optimistic, but much milder air looks increasingly likely next week.

302 kky3
Weatherspark

Here's the GFS version of events. Warm enough for rain showers?

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NOAA via IPS Meteostar

NOAA picks up on the trends for next week. I have a feeling they may be updating their March outlook which currently calls for below average temps across the Upper Midwest in March.

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NOAA

I don't think we're looking at a repeat of March 2012 and 80 degrees on St. Patty's day just yet, but this March is starting to look much milder overall than the past two years.

An early spring this year in Minnesota?

What a concept.