Winter strikes back: Snow, sleet and ice today
It's back!
Winter returns to Minnesota today with a mixed bag of ice, sleet and snow. Our incoming system brings the usual impacts, slick roads and a snow-snarled afternoon commute. You may even enjoy some rare, isolated thundersnow in central and southern Minnesota today.
Some details on our evolving winter weather system today.
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Ice, sleet and snow
The freezing line at about 5,000 feet above ground hugs the southwest metro this morning. That means ice and sleet from the southwest Twin Cities into southwest Minnesota.
Here's a look and listen to the sleet storm pinging the windows at the Weather Lab in the southwest metro this morning.
Inbound low
Here's the latest track on the inbound surface low across Minnesota today. Model trends have shifted the low track ever so slightly south.
That brings the Twin Cities, and especially the north metro in on the edge of the heavier snow bands. A colder arctic high pressure cell drives south behind the system tomorrow and Thursday.
Here's the latest read on snowfall totals. I still think the heaviest totals will come down north of the metro, including the Iron Range to Ely, Gunflint/BWCA the North Shore communities to Duluth, Hinckley and northwest Wisconsin.
The slight southward shift puts the Twin Cities in line for a potentially big snowfall range, from 1 to 3 inches southwest to as much as 3 to 5 inches-plus in the far northeast metro. Most of the metro probably falls into the 1 to 3 inch range by tonight.
Here's NOAA's overnight newly upgraded Global Forecast System model snowfall output, which has been among the most aggressive model members on metro snowfall potential.
There's even enough lift to produce some potential convective snow clusters ahead of the low today. Translation? Thundersnow is an isolated possibility.
Snow continues on and off today, and will be a factor in the afternoon commute.
Bottom Line: Winter weather advisories are up today for most of Minnesota. Expect periods of snow, possibly moderate to heavy at times. Roads will be challenging today across most of Minnesota including afternoon rush hours in the metro.
Colder air follows today's clipper by mid-week. Another sub-zero morning Thursday.
