Milder weekend, significant snow up north

Minnesota rides the edge of winter this year. Occasional brief stabs of arctic air fight to hang on. Pacific winds lie in wait, ready to deliver the next thaw as temperatures run toward the 30s. Above zero.

The first two-thirds of meteorological winter ran about 4 degrees warmer than average. February's attempted winter is off to a brisk start with temperatures running a good minus 7 degrees vs. average so far.

Temperatures moderate once again as we ease toward the weekend. The next clipper takes the northern track, and delivers an increasingly strong shot of wintry weather as you move north through Minnesota this weekend.

Our next clipper rides along a stationary boundary draped across Minnesota this weekend.

To the south, another spring-like air mass. That mild air rides over the wintry cold dome lingering over northern Minnesota. In meteorology we call that "upglide" and it's the perfect scenario for freezing drizzle near the metro into central Minnesota and heavy wet snow up north.

Most major models agree on a northerly snow zone. Heavy snow totals fall north of a line from Bemidji to Duluth this weekend.

Temperatures over the next week? Another up-down-up roller coaster ride.

Left Coast storm rolls in

We call them Atmospheric Rivers. These massive plumes of deep Pacific moisture stream onshore along the West Coast and deliver as much as half of California's annual rainfall.

Storm warnings are flying from northern California to Washington State for flooding multi-inch rains.

Rivers on the rise the next few days? You betcha.

This storm has the attention of researchers too. NOAA aircraft are flying missions into the inbound atmospheric river.

This storm will lead your national newscasts in the coming days.

Minnesota 2100: Welcome to North Carolina?

Our grandchildren may not need to leave Minnesota to snowbird. A new study by Climate Central projects the winter climate of the Twin Cities may be much closer to places like Asheville, North Carolina by 2100.

Here's more from Climate Central:

Climate models project that freezing temperatures will become even less frequent as greenhouse gas emissions further increase global temperatures. What will these warming winters feel like? For our Winter Loses Its Cool interactive we have projected the number of nights below freezing for the end of this century for 697 cities, and then showed which U.S. city currently experiences that number of freezing nights. Several striking examples are highlighted above, but explore the interactive to find out how the cold season will be affected in your city.

By the end of the century, assuming current CO2 emissions trends continue until the end of the century, Helena, Mont., will see about 85 fewer freezing nights, which is comparable to Lubbock, Texas, today. Buffalo, N.Y., which currently experience about 124 freezing nights each year, will only see about 57 a year in 2100, making it more like Charlotte, N.C. Ann Arbor, Mich., will see less than half its current number of nights below freezing (131), which is more like Huntsville, Ala. (60).