Groundhog accuracy? Growing drought potential

Chances are your local groundhog saw his shadow in a brilliant sunrise this morning.

Legend has it that a bright Groundhog Day means six more weeks of winter. That's usually a good bet anyway in Minnesota where March is more winter than spring most years.

But this year I have a growing hunch we're due for an early spring in Minnesota after two years of extended winter bonus time. Shades of March 2012 with 80 degrees on St. Patty's Day? Probably not, but I have a hunch spring may come earlier than in recent years. Indeed, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's spring outlook favors milder than average temps over the Upper Midwest.

Punxutawney Phil: Six more weeks?

I wonder who the weather observer is in Punxutawney, Pa.? Phil reportedly saw his shadow today, in spite of a dense overcast across the entire state of Pennsylvania this morning.

Phil is a great weather legend, but not the best prognosticator of the spring season. Stormfax.com claims Phil's historical accuracy rate is just 39 percent.

The Washington Post maps out the results.

It turns out a groundhog is just a little furry rodent with little predictive skill after all.

Snow drought continues

It's a little jarring to see bare ground driving up to Minnesota's Brainerd Lakes area in late January.

Snow cover returned to southern Minnesota last weekend. Much of central Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas remains snow free.

Minnesota: Growing drought potential

My concerns are still growing about the potential for drought in Minnesota as we head into spring. A full 98 percent of Minnesota is now in pre-drought mode (abnormally dry) according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.

The overall weather pattern for the next few weeks favors continued dryness, and a growing potential for deepening drought as we approach spring. Here's the latest outlook from NOAA.

 Forecast: Status quo:

This week looks relatively dry and cooler than average across Minnesota. Temps moderate as we hit Friday.

Weekend temps look favorable for Saturday's Ice Dash in Excelsior to benefit local food shelves.

State of change: MPR News' climate change coverage this week

During the past several months I've been part of a a team of journalists inside MPR News working on a comprehensive assessment of where we stand with climate change in Minnesota. We've invited and consulted with Minnesota climate experts, economists, business leaders, infrastructure experts among others.

You'll hear and see the results of this work all week long on MPR News. Here's a snippet of some specific metrics on 23 ways Minnesota's climate is changing from our Climate Change Primer.

Climate Change in Minnesota: An MPR News special report

Minnesota is warmer than it used to be. Rain falls in bigger downpours. Hay fever sufferers have a longer sneezing season, and the ticks that deliver Lyme disease are expanding their range. Red maple trees are moving north. So are purple finches. Moose numbers have shrunk.

Without question, the state's climate has changed in recent decades. And that's had an impact on the lives of its wildlife, its plants, its people.

MPR News reporters Elizabeth Dunbar and Dan Kraker spearhead the coverage on the radio side this week with a series of excellent in depth pieces.