Winter strikes back, February chill ahead

The winter of 2014-15 is having a tough time sticking around.

December brought 50 degree warmth and green grass. January looked to reverse that trend early on with a 9 day sub-zero run, but Pacific breezes returned and temps recovered into above average territory once again.

  • 15 straight days above average at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport today

  • +2.8 degrees January temps vs. average so far in the Twin Cities

  • 12 days at or below zero this winter so far at MSP Airport

  • 15 days on average at or below zero at this point in winter

  • 31 days at or below zero by this date last winter

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Mild for now

We enjoy one more mild day today across Minnesota. Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than average for the last days of January.

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Climate Reanalyzer

A cool front blows in slightly cooler air tomorrow from the northwest as the next modified Pacific high pressure cell arrives with some sunshine by Friday. The next clipper brings a few more inches of snow to New England.

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NOAA

It appears January will go out with slightly above average temps overall in Minnesota this year. That makes two of three months milder than average in Minnesota this meteorological winter.

Shadows of a borderline El Nino in the tropical Pacific.

February chill ahead

February has other plans. Almost as if on cue, an arctic front drops south Saturday night. February dawns Sunday with bitter breezes and temps tumbling toward the zero mark across Minnesota. As usual, some light snow accompanies the arctic advance.

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Weatherspark

The longer range outlook suggests colder than average temps as we move into February. Here's the latest 16-day temp output for MSP Airport from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model, via IPS Meteostar.

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NOAA GFS data via IPS Meteostar

Snow drought

Snowfall numbers are coming up short this winter. Yes, Boston got more snow in the past 48 hours than much of Minnesota has all winter.

  • 20.4 inches of snowfall so far this season at MSP Airport

  • -12.2 inches vs. average season to date

  • 33.3 inches last year to date

  • Trace of snow on the ground at MSP

  • 12 inches of snow depth 1 year ago today at MSP Airport

There's a distinct lack of snow cover for late January across the Midwest. The snow free zone bisects Minnesota. Most of the southwest half of Minnesota is now snow free.

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NOAA

What do you get when you mix bare ground, Pacific air masses and sunshine in late January? Temps soared into the 70s Tuesday in South Dakota and Nebraska, and into the 80s in central Kansas. Temps hit the 60s again today in the snow free areas southwest of Minnesota.

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NOAA

The lack of snow cover is concerning at this point in winter. The possibility of expanding drought and an aggressive grass fire season is real as we approach spring if we don't pick up additional snow cover in the next 45 days.

Eighty percent of Minnesota is now in pre-drought phase.

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USDA/UNL

So far I don't see a pattern change that brings heavy snows to Minnesota anytime soon. If that doesn't change, drought may become the theme as we head for spring of 2015 in the Midwest.