Tundra tracker: -15 Wed. morning, mini thaw ahead?

Winter weather 101

Growing up in Minnesota we are programmed early and often with strange winter weather terminology.

First the Pledge of Allegiance.

Then Alberta clippers. Chill factor. Black ice.

Living in Minnesota this time of year we are reminded that our weather is actually life threatening several days each year. Get our act together here, or we pay a dear price. Frozen skin, sideways snow, glare ice highways, flooding rains, damaging derechos, tornado warnings. All par for the course in a year in Minnesota weather.  No wonder weather leads as the top "content driver" for TV and radio newscasts and online content in Minnesota.

Now back to your regular programming.

• -15 degrees: coldest temperature at MSP during this week's cold wave expected Wednesday morning

• -23 degrees: air temperature one year ago (January 6, 2014). (coldest day of last winter)

Monday night's clipper dumps a swath of plowable snow in southern Minnesota and Iowa. We get off lucky in the metro, with an icy coating to an inch in most areas. At temperatures near zero, even a light coating of fine snowfall is very good at laying down an invisible icy glaze on roadways. Yes, it's almost safer to drive in 4 inches of powder then a thin icy glaze. Be careful out there for rush hour Tuesday morning.

Siberian express: Train 1052

Here's the map. The clipper sails southeast bringing snow all the way to the east coast. Then the massive arctic "1052 millibar" central pressure high pressure cell slides south over the entire Upper Midwest. This inbound air mass is about 4-5 degrees colder than what we saw Monday morning, and shoves the coldest temperatures of winter so far over Minnesota.

 Rock bottom: Near -15 Wednesday morning

We bottom out Wednesday morning near -15 in the Twin Cities metro.

Up north, temperatures should have no problem making -30 in towns like Embarrass and Tower early Wednesday.

Tundra tracker: 12 days of sub-zero by next weekend?

Here's a look at metro temperatures this week. Monday was day number six of sub-zero cold so far this season at MSP Airport. We may add another six days by Sunday morning — a week straight of sub-zero mornings. That would surpass the seasonal average, which is about 10 days of sub-zero cold on average by January 10.

It may be small comfort that historically our rigorous climate is often cited as a strong force behind our amazingly efficient and prosperous economy and society in Minnesota. That can be hard to appreciate during weeks like this. "Adapt or die" is a very real concept in Minnesota in winter. Heat in our homes and fleece jammies with the fuzzy feet are much appreciated this time of year.

Dixie chill

Here's a wider look at the depth of penetration of this week's cold wave into the U.S. By Wednesday morning temperatures hover near zero all the way south to Kansas City and Springfield, Illinois. The freezing line runs from Texas all the way into Dixie.

Whispers of a January thaw on the horizon?

We all need a reason to keep going this time of year. Longer daylight is nice, but a January thaw can do a lot of good for even the heartiest native Minnesotan. The Global Forecast System has flipped and flopped around on the notion of a possible warm up the weekend of January 17-18.

The latest GFS runs suggest a few days in the 30s by late next week.

Stay tuned...and stay warm Minnesota.