Snow today, blizzard warnings west

The winter of 2014-15 came in like a lamb with a mild December. January is making up for lost time.

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The next wave of arctic air doesn't look quite as cold as what we've endured so far this week, but it comes with a snowy punch. An Alberta clipper sails south this morning, bringing a snowy swath that will gum up traffic this morning and midday.

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Here's the snowy weather culprit, a low pressure wave zipping through southern Minnesota as the next arctic surge pushes south.

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NOAA

Tricky timing

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A few hours of vigorous snow falls through midday before tapering off after lunch.

Here's a more detailed hour by hour breakdown of what to expect Thursday.

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Weatherspark

Recent model trends suggest a slightly more southwestward drift with the surface low pressure track. That puts the metro increasingly in play for a more general 1 to 3 inch snow swath, with the east Twin Cities metro area most favored to pick up some 2 to 3 inch totals.

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GFS snowfall output via wxcaster.com

Blizzard warnings flying

High winds gusting to over 40 miles per hour kick in behind the Clipper by afternoon. Blizzard warnings are up for the Red River Valley.

Anatomy of a "ground blizzard?" Wind to 50 mph whip fluffy snow airborne and blast it several tens or hundreds of feet high reducing visibility to near zero.

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INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...WARREN...NEWFOLDEN...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...CANDO...LANGDON...CAVALIER...MADDOCK...

LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...ADAMS

321 PM CST WED JAN 7 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN RURAL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FROM 9 TO 11 AM IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN VALLEY...TOWARDS NOON IN ADJACENT NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THURSDAY MORNING TO 25 TO 35 MPH AND WILL GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES WITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN OPEN COUNTRY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE.

* WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THURSDAY EVENING HOWEVER HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS FROM 25 TO 35 BELOW WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

Blizzard warnings are also up for southwest Minnesota.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...GAYLORD...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA

604 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

FOR THE BLIZZARD WARNING...

* VISIBILITIES: IN OPEN AREAS...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. IN CITIES AND TOWNS...1 TO 3 MILES.

* WINDS: NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS DRIVING DUE TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

* TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND GUST TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER.

Moderation ahead

The deep freeze finally eases starting this weekend. Temperatures moderate next week and stay mostly above zero. That a start.

The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast runs are coming into line with what the Global Forecast System has been advertising for a few days now. A thaw as soon as next Friday?

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Weatherspark

The longer range periods of the GFS are much more skillful at revealing temperature trends than specific snowfall events. That's why I use them for warming/cooling trends, and shy away from making long range snowfall predictions.

The 16-day GFS temperature output still suggest a much milder pattern, with several days on the 30s (above zero) and no sub-zero temperatures.

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NOAA GFS data via IPS Meteostar

The recent consistency of the GFS runs, the fact that the Euro is now coming into agreement, and the forecast of a positive Arctic Oscillation phase gives credence to the idea of a strong and potentially sustained warming trends by late next week.

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NOAA

If the forecast holds, January may go out like the December lamb that kicked off winter. Is this week the worst of winter's cold?

Stay tuned.