Clipper coating tonight, mild winter overall?

Brush up on those sloppy winter driving skills. A weak but determined Alberta clipper spreads a snowy swath across Minnesota from west to east today and tonight.

Our incoming system is not the strongest I've seen. If there was a Huttner Weather Lab Alberta Clipper Scale (from 1 to 5) this one would rate a 2 at best. Still, it should be enough to gum up some roads later tonight and Wednesday morning.

Alberta Clippers usually feed on an inflow of arctic air from the north.

Colder arctic air feeding into these storms usually provides an efficient snow producing process. These enhanced "dendritic growth zones" creates high quality snow crystals.

Today's clipper is fighting another batch of mild Pacific air behind it. Without a steady feed of arctic air to deepen the system snowfall totals stay on the lighter side.

The best chance for an inch or more of slushy snow to freshen the landscape? Generally along and south of the I-94 corridor, including the Twin Cities metro. Some heavier totals to 2 to 3 inches may fall west toward the Minnesota River Valley.

Most of the models center around an inch or so for the metro. The next chance of snow rolls in overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.

Bottom line? Snow spreads from west to east across western Minnesota this afternoon. Snow increases in the metro late afternoon and this evening. There will be enough to gum up some roads later tonight with temps just below freezing. The morning rush Wednesday will be affected by some light snow.

January thaw returns Friday 

We bounce around in the upper 20s Tuesday through Thursday. By Friday, another gush of Pacific air blows in from the west. Another mild weekend is headed for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

Here's a closer look at the overall warm bias for the next week. A few more days above the thawing point? Temps this weekend will run nearly 10 degrees above average for late January.

This looks like a mild year to get out and enjoy the events for the St. Paul Winter Carnival.

Winter trending milder overall?

What happens when your weatherman's two favorite things are weather and hockey?

He could think of this winter as a Winter Carnival legends hockey game.

The game clock is ticking toward the end of the 2nd period of meteorological winter. The likely score at the end of the 2nd period?

• Vulcanus Rex 2

• King Boreas 0

December came in warm across Minnesota. Temps in the Twin Cities ran +5.1 degrees vs. average. Remember 50s, rain showers and green grass? Vulcanus Rex, the god of Fire won the 1st period.

January feels more Jekyll and Hyde. Our 10 day cold wave featured a King Boreas-like shot of 9 sub-zero mornings. Then westerly winds aloft delivered our milder Pacific surge with a string of days in the 30s. The forecast for the rest of January favors milder than average temps overall. With January temps right now at -2.4 degrees vs. average, there's a good chance we'll finish the month slightly warmer than average.

That means February temperatures would need to come in at least 5 degrees colder than average for winter to end up near average overall. Of course that could happen, but right now I'd say the deck is stacked against that degree of cold in February. My gut leans in the other direction -- an average to milder than average February based on the patterns I'm seeing now.

NOAA's latest Climate Forecast System models suggest Minnesota rides the boundary of warm west and cold east for February.

At this point in winter, I'd say there a 70 percent chance this meteorological winter (December-February) ends up milder than average overall in Minnesota.

Stay tuned.