Arctic weekend ahead, January thaw next weekend

Congratulations, Minnesota!

You've just survived the coldest week of winter.

Probably.

Endless sub-zero nights. Wind chill warnings. Snowy accident-filled commutes. Blizzard-sculpted snowscapes.

Yes, this week was a wintry mess across Minnesota. If not, it'll do until the mess gets here.

Winter's longest sub-zero run?

This week's sub-zero string started on Sunday. Each day this week has featured sub-zero lows at MSP Airport, including the coldest temperature so far this winter season at MSP Airport with -11 degrees Monday morning.

• Sunday: -7 degrees

• Monday: -11 degrees

• Tuesday: -5 degrees

• Wednesday: -9 degrees

• Thursday: -6 degrees

• Friday: -4 degrees

• Saturday: -7 degrees (forecast)

It's still early and February can (and likely will) deal arctic outbreaks with sub-zero cold. But my hunch is that this week was very likely the most consistent cold we'll see this winter. Stay tuned on that one.

Wednesday morning featured the coldest observed wind chills so far this winter season. At 7 a.m. Wednesday the wind chill bottomed out at a Siberian -54 degrees at Grand Marais. That's respectable even in the coldest of Minnesota winters.

Thursday's Alberta Clipper dropped a good swath of snow that gummed up commutes. The highest snowfall totals favored the east metro and Wisconsin as expected.

High winds to 50 mph whipped the fluffy snow airborne. It was a full-blown ground blizzard with zero visibility in much of Minnesota.

Cold eases slightly this weekend

This weekend still has an arctic feel, but hearty Minnesotans will notice a slight ease in the cold by Saturday afternoon as temperatures stagger into the teens.

Here's a closer look at Twin Cities temperatures through Tuesday.

Snow cover is highly variable across Minnesota. There's about 5 inches in parts of the metro and southern Minnesota. There's plenty of snow to play in up north — more than a foot around International Falls, Ely and the Boundary Waters. Central Minnesota and the Red River Valley are clinging to an inch in many locations.

With lighter winds, this will be a pretty decent winter weekend to get out and enjoy all Minnesota has to offer in winter. I'll be enjoying some fine outdoor hockey ice as usual for the "Saturday game."

By the way, if you're a hockey fan, cold weather fan or just love a good winter-themed underdog story, I highly recommend Mystery Alaska. Get the hot potatoes in the skates and fire up the popcorn and hot chocolate.

January thaw 2105: Feeling 70 degrees warmer by next weekend?

I still see a significant January thaw in the cards for late next week into the weekend of January 17-18.

Our upper winds change late next week as a full-blown Pacific breeze blows into Minnesota. The latest runs from Climate Reanalyzer shows a red blob of warmth building into the northern U.S. and southern Canada by late next week.

The European model continues to be the most aggressive with the warm up. Several days in the 30s, with a shot at 40 degrees by next weekend across southern Minnesota? With several days of good forecast model run consistency it looks more likely by the day.

From -35 wind chills to +35 air temperature by next weekend? That will feel 70 degrees warmer on your skin by my math.

The longer range upper air maps continue to show a shortage of arctic air in Minnesota and most of the U.S.

Minnesota temperatures favor above average trends into late January. Is the worst of winter's cold over?

I fully expect another arctic surge or two in February, but with mild temperatures now likely into late January, the chances are growing that this past week was probably the coldest sustained stretch winter has to offer.

Stay tuned.