Meteorological winter chill now; El Nino ahead?
Happy meteorological winter.
Yes, weather geeks need our own season for record keeping. The coldest three months of the year are December through February, so today marks the beginning of the season we meteorologically call winter.
The weather maps seem to get the hint. Wind chill advisories greet the second coldest morning of the season so far with sub-zero temps and wind chills statewide. Temps stagger into the single digits above zero today under a brittle blue arctic sky.
Our free arctic adventure eases a bit Tuesday, as the mercury climbs into the 20s on southerly winds around the back side of the departing frigid high pressure cell.
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Temperature trends this week feel like walking up the down escalator. We warm up slowly -- two steps forward, one step back. Finally a weekend thaw kicks in as temps nudge above average by Friday.
November: More winter than fall
We expect November to be more winter than fall in Minnesota, and November 2014 delivered. Temps ran a good 8 degrees colder than average around Minnesota last month. Snowfall was almost dead bang on average in the Twin Cities.
-8.3 degrees - temps at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in November
9th coldest November on record at MSP
9.4 inches November snowfall at MSP Airport (average = 9.3 inches)
9 hours of daylight this week in Minnesota
Yes, it seems to get dark shortly after lunchtime these days. Daylight is a mere nine hours this week. We bottom out with the earliest sunsets of the year at 4:32 p.m. starting on Thursday and continuing through Dec. 15.
The good news? Days start getting longer in just three weeks after the December solstice at 5:03 p.m. on Dec. 21.
Fingerprints of El Nino ahead?
The fingerprints of an emerging El Nino continue to strengthen as the coverage and magnitude of warmer than average waters grows in the tropical Pacific.
Our early December cold may be the coldest weather for at least the next two weeks.
Signs of an emerging El Nino continue to show up on the medium range forecst maps. A milder Pacific breezes begin to blow this weekend. A more west-east (zonal) upper air pattern lasts most of next week. It's beginning to look a lot like El Nino on the weather maps.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System continues to crank out a string of days in the 30s and even a few in the 40s starting this weekend through next week. Snowfall looks scant in the next two weeks, and temps may be warm enough aloft for some light December rain?
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is onto the developing warming trends. Check out the latest set of outlooks, lots of red for the United States.
The latest 30-day temp outlook for December released Sunday bathes the U.S. in red for a milder than average December.
What polar vortex?
With an extended thaw and the prospect of a few days at or above 40 degrees, snow cover may be hard to find around these parts by mid December.
A very white Christmas? Maybe.
Stay tuned.