Storm warnings: flash flood watch, gale warnings posted
It looks like the summer of 2014 is ready to go out with a bang in Minnesota.
Why not? After all this is still the Crazy Weather Year of 2014.
It's pick your weather poison today across Minnesota with a colorful weather map featuring a slew of different weather advisories. Dense fog advisories, flash flood watches, gale warnings for Lake Superior?
Welcome to Minnesota, land of 10,000 Weather Extremes.
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Wrap it up: potent low winds up
Meet the next weather event for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. This low pressure system spins up and tracks from south of Omaha, Nebraska, to La Crosse, Wisconsin. Rain, wind and cold air gushing in behind the system will bring widespread frost to greater Minnesota (but not the metro) by later this week.
Tapping Norbert
You can see how the rain shield on the loop above draws moisture from the desert southwest. That's the same remnant moisture source from once Hurricane Norbert that flooded Arizona Monday.
Southwest flow aloft is advecting some of the moisture from Norbert into the Upper Midwest as the system approaches.
The Twin Cities National Weather Service elaborates on the potential for heavy rainfall in this morning's forecast discussion as Norbert's remnant moisture juices our incoming system.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERN TROUGH IS TREMENDOUS THANKS IN PART TO THE REMNANTS OF MAJOR HURRICANE NORBERT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME VALUES MAY EVEN APPROACH 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO WHICH WOULD COME CLOSE TO BREAKING RECORDS NOT ONLY FOR SEPTEMBER BUT FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.
THIS INCREDIBLE MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW /50 TO 60 KT LLJ/...WILL YIELD AN 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX THAT IS IN EXCESS OF 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER ERN IA INTO CENTRAL AND SRN WI/NRN IL IN ADVANCE OF THE RICHEST PW VALUES RESIDING IN SRN IA/NRN MO...AND IS IN THE AREA CONSIDERED IDEAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING THE CHANCES OF EXTREME RAINFALL TOTALS OF SEVERAL INCHES FAIRLY LOW. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS CWA...IT DOES NOT MEAN WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS.
Heaviest rains south?
I agree with the National Weather Service assessment that the heaviest rains will likely fall south of the Twin Cities in southeast Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, but the system will have to be watched for any northward trend.
The La Crosse NWS highlights the flood and severe threat. I will not be surprised to see some 3 to 5 inches rainfall totals come in from Iowa tomorrow.
Gale Warnings on Lake Superior
It's the calm before the storm this morning on Lake Superior. Check out the placid morning scene from the Lake Superior Maritime Museum in Duluth.
Gale warnings and small craft advisories are flying for the big lake along the North and South Shores. Waves of 9 to 11 feet are likely along the North Shore by Wednesday morning, with 10 to 14 foot swells along the South Shore in Wisconsin.
418 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* WINDS...SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* WIND GUSTS...WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
* WAVES/SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 11 FEET ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...AND 10 TO 14 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WEDNESDAY.
Instant fall: October outbreak starts Wednesday
Temps crash Wednesday through the 50s, then bottom out behind the system later this week.
We escape frost in the metro, but much of Minnesota will see scattered frost by Saturday morning.
Buckle up!