October comes knocking with wetter pattern

My Minnesota Weatherguide Calendar in the Weather Lab is begging for me to turn the page to October. I intend to refuse it's silent but effective taunting for at least another 18 hours or so.

Yes, weathermen too can live in a state of denial this time of year.

Oct. 1 tomorrow? How did that happen?

The weather pattern has wasted no time catching up to the calendar this week.

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Fall jet stream patterns are notoriously erratic. Our best weather models struggle to keep up with more rapid weather changes this time of year as the upper winds accelerate, and upper level wave pattern jockey for position as colder air begins to bully its way further south. Model errors often increase more rapidly with time in fall.

The latest trends suggest an end to our three month long dry spell, as multiple rounds of showers move in this week.

1930 msp

Yes, October comes a callin' this week. And our weather is reminding us what latitude we live at in Minnesota. A chilly low pressure wave spins in from the west over the next 48 hours, followed by another cold front.

1930 allfcsts_loop_ndfd (1)
NOAA

The bulk of the showers roll in tonight into Wednesday. By Friday, a stiff northwest breeze and temps in the 50s will leave no doubt October is here.

Meteograms are one way to display weather data  over time. I'm throwing a lot of data on the image below.

From top to bottom you can pinpoint rain chances, temps, and winds. Bottom line this week? Increasingly wet, and Friday's chilly northwest winds will likely gust to 30+ miles per hour.

1930 kky
Weatherspark

Overall precip looks fairly light in Minnesota with heavier totals favoring Wisconsin.

1930 5 day
NOAA
1930 marathon

Twin Cities Marathon: Living up to chilly reputation

I'm not a marathon runner. Give me skates and a fresh sheet of open ice and I'm happy to race you to the puck.

But marathon runners I meet tell me they like it cool. No problem this year. Here's an early look at the weekend, which features temps that may start out in the low 40s Sunday morning with light winds.

Good news for marathon runners?

1930 kky2
Weatherspark

Good luck to all the runners and and the support crew Sunday.