Hurricane Iselle takes aim for Hawaii
Hurricane Iselle has maintained a good deal of strength and 85 miles per hour sustained winds as it churns toward the Big Island of Hawaii tonight.
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It may also make history. Iselle may be the first hurricane on record to make landfall on the Big Island, according to Weather Underground's hurricane specialist Dr. Jeff Masters:
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Hawaii's hurricane history
On average, between four and five tropical cyclones are observed in the Central Pacific every year. This number has ranged from zero, most recently as 1979, to as many as eleven in 1992 and 1994. August is the peak month, followed by July, then September. Tropical storms and hurricanes are rare in the Hawaiian Islands.
Since 1949, the Hawaiian Islands have received a direct hit from just two hurricanes--Dot in 1959, and Iniki in 1992. Both hit the island of Kauai. Only one tropical storm has hit the islands since 1949--an unnamed 1958 storm that hit the Big Island. A brief summary of the three most significant hurricanes to affect Hawaii in modern times:
September 1992: Hurricane Iniki was the strongest, deadliest, and most damaging hurricane to affect Hawaii since records began. It hit the island of Kauai as a Category 4 on September 11, killing six and causing $2 billion in damage.
November 1982: Hurricane Iwa was one of Hawaii's most damaging hurricanes. Although it was only a Category 1 storm, it passed just miles west of Kauai, moving at a speed of nearly 50 miles per hour (80 km/h). Iwa killed one person and did $250 million in damage, making it the second most damaging hurricane to ever hit Hawaii. All the islands reported some surf damage along their southwest facing shores, and wind damage was widespread on Kauai.
August 1959: Hurricane Dot entered the Central Pacific as a Category 4 hurricane just south of Hawaii, but weakened to a Category 1 storm before making landfall on Kauai. Dot brought sustained winds of 81 mph with gusts to 103 mph to Kilauea Light. Damage was in excess of $6 million. No Dot-related deaths were recorded.
Here are the latest stats and discussion on Iselle, which will slam the Big Island and cause damage tonight.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
200 AM HST THU AUG 07 2014
...ISELLE TAKING AIM AT THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 150.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.0 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT...AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT ISELLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE BIG ISLAND.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT...AND FOR OAHU LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KAUAI COUNTY ON FRIDAY.
SURF...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING SURF IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD ALONG EAST AND SOUTH SHORES TODAY...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF ISELLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AS WELL AS ROCK AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND KAU...1 TO 3 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES.
Iselle may be a deceptively damaging storm. It has a compact structure, and a good deal of forward momentum. Julio lurks next, and is forecast to pass just north of the islands this weekend.
