1-2 Hawaiian punch: Twin storms threaten paradise
It looks like twin weather trouble is headed for paradise.
Hurricanes Iselle and Julio are making a beeline for the Hawaiian Islands. Hurricane Iselle is expected to make landfall on the Big Island late tomorrow as a strong tropical storms or possibly Category 1 hurricane. Then Hurricane Julio may strafe the northern side of the islands this weekend with high surf and heavy rains.
First Iselle.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
200 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014
...HURRICANE ISELLE WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 144.1W
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
Here's more on Iselle from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
Situation overview
Iselle is expected to bring heavy rains, high surf and strong winds. Tropical storm conditions could reach the Big Island on Thursday and Maui county late on Thursday. If Iselle remains on the forecast track, tropical storm conditions could affect the Oahu and Kauai county through Friday. High surf is expected to reach the islands ahead of the heavy rains and strong winds. The high surf may bring coastal flooding, particularly when combined with afternoon astronomical high tides.
With some uncertainty in the exact track and strength of Iselle, it is still too early to determine which islands are at most Risk from Iselle. However, the Big Island and Maui county will be the first areas to experience the impacts of Iselle.
Winds
If Iselle stays on the forecast track, winds over 40 mph would begin overspreading the area early Thursday evening. Although changes are still possible, the latest forecast is for sustained winds of 60 mph or higher for portions of the area from early Thursday evening to early Friday morning. Depending on the exact track of Iselle, there is the possibility of significant wind damage.
Storm surge and storm tide
Surf will steadily increase along the Big Island windward coast starting tonight, and reach hazardous levels as the storm approaches. Surf heights of 10 to 20 feet are expected Wednesday ahead of Iselle with larger surf Wednesday night and Thursday. The astronomical high tide Wednesday for Hilo bay is 1230 pm at 2.5 feet and Thursday 120 pm at 2.8 feet. The high surf and high tide combination will bring the potential for coastal flooding along low lying areas.
Inland flooding
A flash flood watch is in effect for the entire area.
Tracking Julio
Hurricane Julio became the fifth hurricane of the Pacific season overnight. Here's the track forecast for Julio, a slightly more northerly track.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014
...JULIO STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 129.0W
ABOUT 1750 MI...2820 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
The official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and was shifted slightly southward after that, similar to the consensus model TVCE, but not as far south as the ECMWF model. The latter model brings Julio much closer to the Hawaiian Islands since it no longer develops a break in the ridge.
The developing eye feature, low shear of less than 5 kt, and a moistening mid-troposphere argue for at least some modest strengthening for the next 36 hours or so as Julio moves from a SST cold pool and over a warmer oceanic ridge. These condition also typically favor rapid intensification, which would be a possibility, except for the occasional intrusions of cooler and more stable air from the north. However, it wouldn't be surprising if Julio reaches its peak intensity a little sooner than forecast while the upper-level outflow pattern continues to expand. By 48 hours, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable air mass, which should induce gradual weakening.
Minnesota forecast: status quo
What you see is what you get locally into the weekend. Our blocking ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to steer storms from Sioux Falls, South Dakota, to Des Moines, Iowa, where beneficial rains continue.
Multi-inch rainfall totals ride the southwest corner of Minnesota and focus in eastern South Dakota and Iowa.
The latest trends suggest our slow to budge pattern may keep the metro and eastern Minnesota mostly dry until Saturday night or Sunday.
Overall longer term trends suggest summer and temps in the 80s may hold on into State Fair time at least. We earned that this year right?
State Fair forecast: weather on a stick
The only sure forecast thing this early on the State Fair opener is for corn dogs and walleye on a stick. Other than that the weather forecast is still about as certain as the ring toss on the Midway.
The very early read suggest summer may hold on into opening day. A humid high of 89 with a dew point at 70 degrees on opening day? I'll believe it when I see it, but that's what NOAA's uber-long range Global Forecast System is projecting at this point.
Where's the nearest lemonade stand?