128 year record cold Monday?

Get ready Minnesota. Monday may be the coldest July 14 in at least 128 years.

If the forecast numbers are right Minnesota may see record cold temps for Monday July 14. The Twin Cities will likely tie or break the all time record for the coldest daytime maximum temps on Monday of 68 degrees — set way back in 1884.

The record for the coldest maximum temps Monday is 68 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. Minnesota Climatology Working Group

The going forecast for Monday’s partly gray showery high in the Twin Cities is low to mid 60s depending on which model you choose. A little weather perspective here, 65 degrees is the average high for — wait for it – Oct.1  in the Twin Cities.

Here’s a look at the output from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System for early next week from Weatherspark.

Weatherspark

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts  is even colder with a projected high of just 62 degrees Monday.

Here’s a look at the Twin Cities National Weather Service forecast high temps Monday afternoon. Welcome to Minnesota, sports fans!

NOAA

Typhoon teleconnection

Mondays record cold wave may actually have roots in the North Pacific from Super Typhoon Neoguri.

How can a super typhoon half a world away help drive record summer cold into Minnesota?

Great question. The answer may not be as complicated as you might think.

Super Typhoon Neoguri approaches Japan. NASA

Meteorologists have long studies so called “teleconnections” in the atmosphere. It turns out the jet stream that steers weather systems overhead is like a long jump rope. Shake one end, and you can get a big wave rippling through the rope to the other end.

Twin Cities National Weather Service

Super Typhoon Neoguri may be the shake that’s helping drive an unusually cold polar  vortex into the Upper Midwest Monday. There are many sources on this, but one of my favorites who I have spoken with about all things climate driven is Weather Underground’s Jeff Masters.

Impact of Neoguri on U.S. weather

While the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri will not impact the U.S. directly, the large and powerful nature of this storm has set in motion a chain-reaction set of events that will dramatically alter the path of the jet stream and affect weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere next week.

Neoguri will cause an acceleration of the North Pacific jet stream, causing a large amount of warm, moist tropical air to push over the North Pacific. This will amplify a trough low pressure over Alaska, causing a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, where a strong ridge of high pressure will develop, and over the Midwestern U.S., where a strong trough of low pressure will form.

This jet stream pattern is similar to the nasty”Polar Vortex” pattern that set up during the winter of 2014 over North America, and will cause an unusually cool third week of July over the portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with temperatures 10 – 20°F below average.

Here’s the latest temperature departure maps from NOAA’s Global Forecast System model for Monday afternoon via Climate Reanalyzer.

Climate Reanalyzer

Always excellent Jason Samenow from Capital Weather Gang has another take on a pattern that looks eerily similar to last winter’s polar vortex.

Capital Weather Gang

Call it the ghost of the polar vortex, the polar vortex sequel, or the polar vortex’s revenge. Meteorological purists may tell you it’s not a polar vortex at all. However you choose to refer to the looming weather pattern, unseasonably chilly air is headed for parts of the northern and northeastern U.S at the height of summer early next week.

Bearing a haunting resemblance to January’s brutally cold weather pattern, a deep pool of cool air from the Gulf of Alaska will plunge into the Great Lakes early next week and then ooze towards the East Coast.

No matter what you call it, Monday’s July polar vortex will get your attention and have you grabbing for the sweatshirt. And just in time to showcase Minnesota’s fine summer weather for a national audience during MLB’s All-Star Home Run Derby Monday evening.

Naturally.

  • RideTheCurve

    Thank You for the NICE weather, Paul, and everyone who interprets and communicates this Most Important variable in all our lives! This is Fab weather. Good to work / play outdoors in – no, IDEAL to play / work outdoors! Now you have us wanting More! lol