June Monsoon returns; heavy rain and severe threat

Batten down the weather hatches, the next tropical low pressure wave is moving through this weekend.

It’s not over. At least not yet.

Several waves of rain and thunder are likely through this weekend across Minnesota. Some of the storms will be slow movers, and that means the potential for more localized heavy rainfall totals. There is also a risk for severe storms this weekend.

Here’s a quick overview for the time challenged. More detail in the blog below.

Our latest weather culprit? Another slow moving, tropically infused low pressure system crawling through the Upper Midwest along a sluggish jet stream.

Sound familiar?

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The big question now? How much rainfall will we see this weekend to add to already cresting and overflowing rivers?

Here’s the latest computer rainfall output from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It easily suggests another inch or two for the Twin Cities and most of Minnesota, with the potential for some more 3 inch-plus totals by Sunday night.

NOAA

Here’s a closer look at model rainfall output fro the Twin Cities. NOAA’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System and its Global Forecast System crank out between 1 and 2 inches the next few days. Locally heavier totals are certainly possible under slow moving tropical downpours.

Iowa State University

Check out the Twin Cities National Weather Service take on this weekend’s system with this latest weather briefing.

Tracking the rivers: Major crests slowly passing

The high water mark for many metro rivers is here. Some rivers like the Crow in Delano have already crested. The Crow is thankfully down more than a foot in Delano the past two days.

Twin Cities NWS/Hydrology

The Mississippi at St. Paul is riding the crest, and expected to slowly begin falling.

Twin Cities NWS/Hydrology

An inch or two of additional rainfall will likely prolong the high levels, but not push rivers too much higher. If rainfall totals reach 3″ to 4″+ as in past events, a second crest looms next week.

Weather fingers crossed.

Why did the carp cross the road? Floodwater flowing over roadway at Fort Snelling State Park.

Welcome to the jungle: Tropical dew points arrive

The past few days have featured a comfortable air mass with dew points int he 50s. You knew it was only a matter of time before thick tropical moisture arrived. The incoming air mass feature the highest dew points so far this summer season. Here’s the increasingly sticky dew point trend through the weekend. A Canadian cool front brings relief, and free AC next week.

Weatherspark

Typical Fourth of July?

The typical 4th of July in Minnesota features festive parades, smoking hot grills, warm sunshine and and a chance of rain. This year may be no different.

Here’s the GFS maps for the Fourth, which suggest a departing high pressure system, a southeast breeze and an approaching hot front that could spawn some scattered storms.

NOAA

The very early look at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests the rain may hold off until the weekend, but a rising dew point and temps approaching 80 could feel pretty nice on Friday the Fourth.

Weatherspark

Stay tuned — and hoping you and your basement stay dry this weekend!