Working toward a milder weekend
The weather trends are heading in the right direction for many Minnesotans. It's just taking a while to get there.
Our slow motion spring continues to inch forward this week. It's like the mirage that keeps appearing on the horizon, just to reach the vanishing point as we cross the next dune.
The upper air pattern over the Upper Midwest is caught in a stubborn northwest flow this spring.
Stuck weather: son of polar vortex
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We've witnessed a weird turn of weather events in Minnesota the past few months. Two years ago, we were basking in the warmest winter and spring period on record. The past six months? We shivered through the 10th coldest such period. Talk about weather whiplash.
So much for "normal" Minnesota weather.
Here's a good explainer from the Twin Cities National Weather Service on just how extreme our weather patterns have been the past few years.
We gradually recover from another shot of temperatures 20 degrees below average this week.
Believe it or not, the average high in the Twin Cities hits 70 degrees Saturday, and stays there until Sept. 21. We may actually get close to 70 by Sunday.
Check out the data below from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System. I think the GFS is a tad conservative on Sunday's temps at this point.
Tale of two forecasts
In Minnesota weather it's all about the upper air pattern. There's no big mountain range or temperate ocean nearby to modify our climate and weather.
The river of air overhead that is the jet stream dictates our weather.
This week a deep upper low has been sending us a steady diet of colder Canadian air down over Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.
NOAA's GFS and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models indicate a potential shift to a much different and warmer pattern next week.
If this pattern verifies, temperatures could be as much as 25 degrees warmer next week. That would mean a potential for a string of 70+ degree days.
Yes, I'll believe it when I see it too. But the odds are looking better with each passing model run.
Weather fingers and toes crossed.