Summery preview for Memorial Day Weekend

For once it appears the weather stars have aligned for Minnesota on a big holiday weekend.

The weather and the calendar are mostly in sync this weekend. The first taste of summer weather has arrived just in time as swarms of Minnesotans escape north for the for Memorial Day Weekend.

This weekend feels more like June, or even July than late May. That means plenty of sun, balmy breezes and temps in the upper 70s to low 80s, but also a few scattered showers and thunderstorms roaming the state.

Latest trends favor a slower weather system edging toward Minnesota from the west this weekend. That means a stunning Saturday, and increasing odds that dry fair weather will linger through most of Sunday. Boating anyone?

The best chance for  a stray showers or thunderstorms creeps in Sunday night into Memorial Day. Here's the weekend breakdown based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model data from Weatherspark.

 Summer 2014: Here to stay?

It's amazing how quickly we transition from one season tot another in Minnesota. Like The Wizard of Oz, it's as if that man behind the weather curtain is ready with finger on the weather light switch to change from spring to summer in an instant.

It looks like July warmth will stick around through next week.

We're especially lucky with weather this Memorial Day. Statistically, Memorial Day and the 4th of July are the wettest and stormiest of the big three summer holiday weekends in Minnesota.

My read of the weather maps is for warmer than average temps the next two weeks. It will feel more like late June or early July around these parts. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center agrees. It's nice to see red on the weather maps again over the Upper Midwest.

Lake Superior icebergs

It's interesting to see there's still some big chunks of ice floating around southern Lake Superior on Memorial Day Weekend. Here's the view from the Lake Superior Maritime Museum webcam in Duluth.

Here's the 250-meter resolution shot from NASA's MODIS Terra Satellite Friday. Note the clusters of ice near Duluth Harbor and the Apostle Islands.

Here's a really cool up close and personal look at the floating ice chunks in Superior.

 NOAA Hurricane Outlook: If you care

If you read this space you know how I feel about the (lack of) value of seasonal hurricane forecasts. The track record from issuers like Colorado State University has been abysmal at times. In fact CSU suspended operations for a time late last year after another poor performance.

Even if overall seasonal numbers are close they tell us nothing about when and where a hurricane may strike. Every year you hear a lot of hype about "we're due" for another major hurricane here or there. Most years it never happens, then suddenly a Hurricane Sandy jumps up out of nowhere and surprises everyone.

I'd much rather see research finds spent in the short term diagnosis and forecasting of hurricane development, tracks, and rapid intensity fluctuations. Our U.S. forecast models need a major upgrade.

A developing El Nino may reduce overall hurricane numbers this season. Even so, one major Category 3 hurricane or higher can ruin your day, or your life.

Here's NOAA's take on the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season.

 New "Giraffe" meteor shower debuts Friday night

You may wan to find a dark spot and watch the sky after midnight Friday night. A brand new meteor shower makes it's debut. here's the skinny from NPR. You can also watch it live here.

An all-new meteor shower makes its debut tonight, and astronomers say it could put on a show starting as early as 10:30 p.m. ET Friday and peaking early Saturday. Called the Camelopardalids, the shower is named after the giraffe constellation. It's expected to be visible in nearly all of the U.S., if skies are clear.

"No one has seen it before," NASA says, "but the shower could put on a show that would rival the prolific Perseid meteor shower in August."

The shower is new to earthlings because its parent, Comet 209P/LINEAR, was only discovered 10 years ago. It passes through Earth's orbit of the sun once every five years or so, leaving a trail of debris behind it.

"North America is well placed for observing the May Camelopardalids," NASA says, adding that "observations are best from the northwestern United States and southern Canada."

The space agency posted a map highlighting when different areas will have the best chance to see the shower (we'll note that 06:00 UTC translates to 2 a.m. ET). But you'll need clear skies to see it — and the folks at Accuweather.com have posted their own viewing map, based on tonight's weather predictions.

Astronomers say the Camelopardalids will peak between the hours of 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. ET, with a radiant point near Polaris, the North Star.

But as NASA notes, "You don't need to look in any particular direction, just straight up. Meteors can appear all over the sky."

While astronomers are hoping the shower will give viewers a spectacle, they can't be certain that'll happen. It all depends on how much dust the comet threw off hundreds of years ago, in the 1700s and 1800s.

"If Comet 209P/LINEAR was a poor producer of debris, we'll see nothing," NASA meteor expert Bill Cooke tells The Washington Post. "But if the comet was more active 200 or 300 years ago, we'll see a decent show. What happens this Saturday morning was determined a few hundred years ago."

NASA says that "a rate of 200 meteors per hour during the peak may be possible." And because the Camelopardalids travel at much slower speeds than other annual meteors, the effect could be "majestic," Joe Rao of Space.com says. "Instead of swift streaks that blaze into incandescence within a heartbeat and are gone just a second or two later, tonight's meteors might move across the sky in a relatively slow, almost majestic manner."