Spring-like weekend, warmer thunder risk next week, El Nino brewing

Where did I put my sunglasses anyway?

You may be searching for those long lost lenses any day now as a rare Minnesota astronomical event know as sunshine coincides with a weekend.

Our persistent, week long cutoff low is moving east. Once more, days of scattered showers Friday will give way to a dry, and partially sunny weekend as weak high pressure builds in from the west.

Mostly dry weekend?

What a concept. Dry weather. Some sunshine mixed in. On a weekend? Somebody call Homeland Security.

Your sump pump may get a break as we could actually string together three mostly dry days in a row Saturday through Monday. Temps should push 60 degrees this weekend.

Next week looks milder -- very close to average for early May. The average high for the Twin Cities next week is 67 degrees.

The upper wind flow changes in the next week. That's means warmer temps as the jet stream builds a ridge across the central U.S. next week.

The Des Moines, Iowa, National Weather Service elaborates:

A developing Midwest upper low brings a growing potential for thunderstorms as the next low tracks farther north into Minnesota by next Wednesday and Thursday.

It's early, but a few severe storms could be in the cards by the middle of next week. Something to keep an eye on.

We may use up our quota of lightning symbols on the weather maps next week.

Some of the models suggest 70s are likely by next Thursday. I agree at this point.

This should be a great weekend to get out and about and get some spring yard work done. We'll keep an eye out to see how next week evolves with thunder risk.

Seeley: Wettest April on record for some Minnesota locations

April was the second wettest on record with  over 6 inches at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. Some locations in Minnesota recorded the wettest April on record.

MPR News and University of Minnesota climate guru Mark Seeley has some eye catching numbers in this week's Weather Talk. Here's an early preview.

Topic:  April climate summary

Cooler and wetter than normal describes the month of April in Minnesota for a second consecutive year.  April of 2014 was the 6th consecutive month with cooler than normal mean monthly temperatures reported.  Most observers reported mean values for April temperature that were from 4 to 6 degrees F cooler than normal.

Extremes for the month ranged from 82 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) on April 9th to -11 degrees F at Hallock (Kittson County) on April 2nd.  Only 9 days during the month brought above normal temperatures.  Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation on four dates during the month.

Precipitation was abundant and above normal in most counties, with the exception of a portion of southwestern Minnesota which received below normal precipitation.  In several areas the month concluded with 8 consecutive days of rainfall.

Many observers reported twice the normal amounts of April precipitation, and for many this was among the wettest five Aprils in history. Some of these included:

Faribault 8.03" wettest all-time

New Hope 8.97" wettest all-time

Chaska 8.40" wettest all-time

Jordan 7.51" wettest all-time

Thorhult 4.18" wettest all-time

Grand Portage 5.82" 2nd wettest

Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center (near Finland) 5.91" 2nd wettest

MSP airport 6.27" 2nd wettest

University of Minnesota St Paul Campus 6.94" 2nd wettest

Forest Lake 7.33" 2nd wettest

El Nino brewing 

I've talked about the potential for an El Nino in the tropical Pacific this fall, and the potential it could become a sort of "Super El Nino" that could rival the extreme event of 1997-98.

Here's an interesting look from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at how this event may be developing  in sub-surface waters in the Pacific, as waves of warmer ocean water surge east toward the coast of South America this spring.

Here's a cross section of the tropical Pacific on Feb. 19.

Here's another on April 18.

As the much warmer water reaches the surface, it may begin to affect atmospheric circulation patterns as we move into summer and fall. The odds of a milder than average winter in the Upper Midwest next winter appear to be growing.

The odds of a series of "Pineapple Express" driven storms lashing the California Coast next winter also appear to be rising. That could be a mixed bag -- catastrophic storms that bring massive flooding, but also precious water for the drought stricken West.

Stay tuned.