Mixed weekend for fishing, mom; Super El Nino ahead?

The Doppler glows with steady streams of boat trailers heading north to lake country. Bait shops overflow with shiny new Rapalas and tanks full of soon-to-be walleye appetizers. Stores brace for the last minute rush on flowers, cards and candy destined for Minnesota mothers.

It must be Fishing Opener and Mother's Day weekend in Minnesota.

Fishing Opener 2014: It could be worse

Given the dramatic range of Minnesota Fishing Opener weather conditions, this year's weather looks fairly decent. A mix of sun, clouds and a few showers should provide all kinds of different conditions this weekend. The direst hours appear to be early Saturday, and again early Sunday. Pack some rain gear in between.

Brunch with mom on Sunday?

Winds look relatively light this weekend. Good news for those wanting some ripples on the lakes to keep lures dancing, but few navigation issues.

Ice out progressed about a week ahead of last year. Most of the big destination lakes up north, including Gull, Whitefish Chain and Mille Lacs, are ice free.

Ice is still working it's way out of some lakes as you approach the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. Check your favorite lake here.

The next low slides south of Minnesota late Sunday and scattered rain showers return into Monday.

TheNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center keeps the severe risk south of Minnesota this weekend, but A few storms may be strong in southeast Minnesota by Sunday night.

Cool bias next week

Our good cop / bad cop weather pattern continues next week. It looks cooler than average once again, with a few more bouts of showers. The good news?

It should be cool enough to avoid any severe weather threat, but you'll want to keep the umbrella close by.

Super El Nino cranking up in the tropical Pacific?

All signs in the tropical Pacific point to an increased likelihood (65 percent) of a strong El Nino developing this summer. Tropical Pacific ocean surface water temps are on the rise.

Beneath the surface, a warm slosh of water is surging east. This phenomenon is known as a Kelvin Wave and can rapidly boost surface water temps as it sloshes into the west coast of the Americas.

El Nino is called when tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures reach a threshold of +0.5C. Most major models for the tropical Pacific now favor a moderate to strong El Nino event  later this year, with temps at or above +1.0C to as high as +1.6C.

Global temps are warmest in strong El Nino years. One of the strongest lines of evidence that the increase in greenhouse gasses is forcing global temps upwards is that we've continued to stack up successive "top 10 warmest years" globally in an environment with historically low solar cycles and strong La Nina episodes.

Those factors tends to cool the planet, but earth has maintained global temperature levels at or near the highs set in the 1998 El Nino event. The logical explanation? greenhouse gasses are doing an efficient job of warming the planet in an environment where other factors have been (temporarily) working against warming.

The chart below shows how we've stayed warm globally, even in strong La Nina (cooler) years.  Some climate watchers believe the next El Nino may drive global temps to record levels in 2014 and 2015.

If a so-called Super El Nino develops rapid this summer, the impacts for Minnesota will likely increase as we head into fall and winter.

The overall odds? A much milder winter next year than the one we just endured.

Stay tuned!