Milder winter? El Nino chances soar toward 80%
Minnesota's chances for a milder winter next year are increasing by the day.
The latest data from the tropical Pacific shows warmer water is building fast. This suggests chances for an El Nino by this fall or winter may approach 80 percent, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
El Nino is a periodic warming of ocean waters in the tropical Pacific. It affects weather patterns worldwide. It can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, and favors milder winter in the northern United States. It also tends to produce wetter winters in California and the southwest.
One look at Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies shows the trend toward warmer water this spring.
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The trends have caused NOAA to forecast that chances for an El Nino may reach close to 80 percent by this winter.
Typically El Nino produces milder winters for Minnesota.
Specifics atmospheric circulation patterns can change for each El Nino event. Overall the temperature average can be around 4 degrees warmer in El Nino winters in the Twin Cities area compared to La Nina winters.
My hunch is we could be as much as 5 to 10 degrees warmer in Minnesota next winter compared to last winter if El Nino really gets cranking.
Will Minnesota catch a break on another harsh winter next year?
Stay tuned.