Metro ‘slop storm,’ heavy snow north, 60s return next week

Good evening, my name is Paul. I'll be your weather therapist this evening.

That's what it feels like to be a meteorologist in Minnesota (again) this spring. Part scientist. Part counselor. Part "dart board" for irate winter weary Minnesotans.

Why not?

Our next shot of "winter into spring" is rolling into Minnesota. Winter storm warnings are flying all day Wednesday north of the Twin Cities metro area, including Brainerd, Mille Lacs, Hinckley, Duluth and into northwest Wisconsin.

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Heavy snow north

April in Minnesota and northern Wisconsin? It's like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates. You never know what you're going to get.

Temperatures can be in the 60s one week -- and the next week can bring heavy, wet snow.

Here's the view from the Duluth office of the National Weather Service, which lays out the heaviest snow band from Interstate 35 into northwest Wisconsin. A foot plus in Hayward, Wis.? At least the trees and lakes will be happy for the extra moisture.

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Storm track trending south

The forecast have been trending slightly south with our latest springtime snow event. Here's the latest storm track and precipitation types from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

1415 allfcsts_loop_ndfd (1)
NOAA

As I said Tuesday morning, even a slight southward jog of 30 to 40 miles in storm track trend puts the Twin Cities in play for upgraded slushy snowfall accumulations. The Twin Cities National Weather Service has added counties in the north and east metro to a winter weather advisory in light of the trends.

SHERBURNE-ANOKA-WASHINGTON-ST. CROIX-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK RIVER...BLAINE...STILLWATER...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND

454 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER

OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...3 TO 5 INCHES...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SHOVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Huge metro snowfall gradient?

They say all weather is local. That may be especially true with snowfall totals across the metro by late Wednesday night. If current trends hold and precipitation stays mostly snow and temperatures hold in the mid-30s in the north metro,  a potential pile of snow --from three to six inches -- seems quite possible by Thursday morning. Any mixing in the south metro and daytime temperatures that may approach 40 degrees should cut totals accordingly.

Talk about a razor's edge.

The Global Forecast System 12z snowfall map is typical of many solutions that lay out a big range of snowfall from south to north across the metro Wednesday.

1415 gfs
wxcaster.com

Bottom Line:

  • Expect snow to develop overnight in the metro and central and eastern Minnesota from St. Cloud and Brainerd through Hinckley and Duluth.

  • Snow should be falling during Wednesday morning rush hour, with slick roads in the metro especially the further north you go.

  • Precipitation should stay all snow from the north metro north where six to 12 inches is likely across central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin

  • Precipitation may start as snow in the metro, and change to a rainy mix in the central and south metro midday and afternoon hours.

  • One to three inches of slush seems likely for the central and south metro with three to six inches quite possible north and east metro.

  • Metro snowfall forecasts may change significantly with any small track shifts Wednesday.

  • Temps in the 60s and possibly 70 degrees will likely return next week!

Stay tuned, and hang in there Minnesota!