‘Operation Warm Up’ kicks in next 24 hours
Brighter Days
It's nice to see the sun at the Weather Lab this morning. We'll mix in a few clouds as the day wears on in parts of Minnesota, but the sun may be a good metaphor for our forecast. The weather numbers are looking up.
Our long winter got a little longer for southern Minnesota overnight. A productive clipper overachieved on snowfall totals. A narrow swath picked up 6 to 10 inches from eastern South Dakota to northeast Iowa.
Here's the map from the Twin Cities National Weather Service.
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
730 AM CST WED MAR 05 2014
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...TOTALS FROM THE MARCH 4-5TH SNOWSTORM...
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SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT
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INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
10.50 S MAPLETON MN BLUE EARTH 0312 AM
9.50 ST JAMES MN WATONWAN 0303 AM
9.40 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0431 AM
9.00 COMFREY MN BROWN 0725 AM
8.30 NEW RICHLAND MN WASECA 1045 PM
8.20 7 NE MAPLETON MN BLUE EARTH 1059 PM
7.50 LAKE CRYSTAL MN BLUE EARTH 0145 AM
7.00 AMBOY MN BLUE EARTH 0725 AM
7.00 ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 1252 AM
6.50 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 0550 AM
6.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 1200 AM
5.50 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0130 AM
Operation Warm Up
Our weather attention focuses to the coming warming trend. Winds shift into the south with the first wave of milder air pushing in Thursday, and temps respond accordingly. A cool front provides a little speed bump in the warm up Friday night through Sunday morning.
Then the stronger second wave of milder air gushes in Sunday evening into Monday.
The latest model runs continue to support support my thinking from earlier this week that we should have no trouble hitting 40 degrees or higher in the metro and southern Minnesota by Sunday PM and Monday. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is even more (too?) optimistic about our chances for surging past the 40 degree mark next week.
Jet stream shift
This is how we warm up in Minnesota in late winter and spring. The jet stream has been howling out of the Yukon Territory all winter. Now, the jet shifts to a more westerly flow from Portland, Ore., and Seattle. That blows much milder Pacific air masses into Minnesota.
It's been a long time since we've seen red on weather maps in the Midwest. here's a look at expected temperature anomalies early next week. The core of cold polar air shifts into eastern Canada.
The longer range trends still support an extended warm up. The 16-day Global Forecast System model shows several days above the thawing point, and even hints at a potential rain to snow system in the March 18-19 time frame.
Melting snow?
Our prospects for melting some of that snow on your lawn look good the next two weeks.
The sun is as high in the sky in two weeks as late September. The increased sun angle and intensity on days above the thawing point, and the possibility of rain may do a number on our extensive snow cover in the next two to three weeks.
We've got a long way to go and we'll likely get more snow at some point in March, but I expect we'll finally see pavement again by early next week on long icy driveways, side streets and sidewalks.
Near record early March snow cover
Take a look at the extensive snow cover in the U.S. this week.
According to the NOAA satellites Twitter feed, this is the 3rd highest extent of snow cover for early March on record.
Windy City Ice Age
We know much of the Upper Midwest has had a top 5 to 10 winter. Chicago may have suffered more than many. The 3rd coldest and 3rd snowiest winter is finally easing up in Chicago.
Chicago has actually shoveled 9 more inches of snow than the Twin Cities this winter.
The prolific winter snowfall totals continue out east. Here's the eye popping chart from NWS Eastern Region HQ.
Tale of two winters
This has truly been an historic winter in the eastern half of the U.S. Not so much in the west. Las Vegas, Nev., and Tucson, Ariz., recorded the warmest winters on record!
