Brisk Tuesday, watching rain and snow chances Thursday
Your favorite winter jacket is getting a good workout this winter right into March.
Tuesday brings another brisk day across Minnesota as Polar air spills south again on chilly breezes as the next blue-studded Canadian cold front rides south on the weather maps. Click on the map below to animate another blob of Canadian high pressure surging south if you dare.
Temperature trends bounce around this week as a series of cold and warm fronts cross Minnesota. After our chilly Tuesday, the next warm front rides north Wednesday.
In the next 48 hours, a breezy to windy 40 degrees by Wednesday afternoon will feel relatively nice compared to 20s on Tuesday.
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Wet and stormy Thursday
The biggest weather story this week rolls in on Thursday. All models show a strong late winter early spring low pressure system moving into Iowa Thursday.
The latest Global Forecast System runs have moved closer to the earlier (warmer) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts solutions for the metro.
The GFS suggests mostly rain in the metro Thursday morning and midday, then moves the 850 millibar 0 degree isotherm (rain/snow line) close to the Twin Cities metro area by Thursday afternoon.
Translation?
It's still too early to be precise, but the trend is leaning in the direction of a system that may be begin as rain and transition to snow for the metro and southern Minnesota.
Better chances for significant snowfall appear to be favoring areas close to or north of a Marshall- St. Cloud-Duluth line. Here's the European model's take on snowfall layout, which favors a more northern solution.
It's still too early in the game to credibly asses rain/snow line with any precision Thursday. The best advise is to expect a rain to snow system -- with the best chance of significant snow totals west and north of the Twin Cities.
'Operation Warm Up' this weekend
The maps are still on track for a much warmer weather pattern this weekend. It will be nice to melt snow instead of making more snow for a change.
The GFS is the more conservative model for this weekend, and still pushes temperatures well into the 40s Saturday and 50s Sunday.
The European model is more (too?) optimistic and pushes temps into the low 60s in the metro Sunday afternoon. I think 60 will be no problem in southwest Minnesota Sunday afternoon, but it may be tough to get there in the metro.
One note: Most models under-forecast temps leading up to the two days of 50 degree weather earlier this month, so it's hard to discount the European solution completely.
Stay tuned!