Bottoming out today, warmer fronts ahead

Thermometers bottom out today across Minnesota as milder air gets set to ride in from the south and west.

Our first warm front blows in Wednesday on gusty southerly winds. After struggling into the lower 20s today, temps may actually stabilize or rise overnight toward early morning.

It won't feel any warmer with wind chills Wednesday morning, but by afternoon you'll notice a lot less bite in the air. You may be breathing easier as the sun actually feels warm for a change and temps approach 40 degrees tomorrow afternoon.

Thursday storm looks less scary?

It's still too early to be precise, but two model trends the past 24 hours have Thursday's incoming weather system looking a little less scary (wintry) then yesterday.

A more southerly track, and warmer temps above freezing could mean more rain than snow for much of central and southern Minnesota.

The latest surface maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Digital Forecast Database show today's Canadian high pressure dome giving way to the incoming low Thursday. Click to animate.

Here's a closer look at Thursday trends as the low rides in. Notice the green -- that's rain instead of snow over much of Minnesota Thursday morning.

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The Twin Cities National Weather Service lays out the scenario this way.

If current trends are right, most of the moisture may fall as rain, and be moving off to the east by the time we can get a changeover from rain to snow. That would mean lighter snowfall totals for central and southern overall, with the best chance of plowable snow north and east.

Here are the overnight trends on snowfall Thursday into Friday morning from NOAA's Global Forecast System.

Bottom Line? Thursday's weather system seems to be trending warmer, and could favor more rain than snow for central and southern Minnesota.

Operation 'Weekend Warm Up' on the way

After two March weekends that felt like January, it looks like the last weekend in March may finally feel like April. A major thaw on the weekend? What a concept.

All major forecast models still insist on a much warmer southwest flow aloft and a major league warm front pushing in Saturday. The warm air peaks Sunday, as temps should have no problem reaching the mid 50s in the metro and 60 in southwest Minnesota.

The GFS brings in snow destroying 40s Saturday and 50s Sunday for the metro.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts continues to push the temperature envelope with (overly optimistic?) temps pushing 60 in the metro Sunday afternoon.

I'm not ready to say the European center's solution is bunk just yet as conditions do look ideal to get maximum "mix down" and warming Sunday afternoon.

Good mixing breezes bring down much warmer air from aloft and boost temps here at ground level. Still, I think 50s are more likely for the metro, with 60s in southwest Minnesota.

Sunday afternoon temps 20 to 30 degrees warmer than today?

We'll take it!