Dangerous storm finally arrives, heavy snow with 6″ to 12″+ by morning

Biggest storm of winter arrives

It's finally here. It looks like it may be the biggest snowfall of the winter for the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota.

Let's not sugar coat it. This is a dangerous storm. Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate through tonight.

Our better late than never winter storm finally moved in with snow this afternoon. The eastern two thirds of Minnesota and western Wisconsin are under winter storm and blizzard warnings through tonight.

Snowfall rates ramp up through tonight and will reach 1 to 2 inches-plus per hour. Thundersnow has been reported in southern Minnesota, and spreads north through tonight. These "convective snowbursts" are mini thunderstorms within the bigger winter storm and can generate prolific snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour.

Here are the latest storm trends.

• Winter storm warnings and blizzard warnings remain in effect through tonight.

• Snow intensity explodes this afternoon through tonight.

• Rates of 1 to 2 inches-plus per hour may occur at times between 3 p.m. and 11 p.m. tonight.

• Snowfall totals of 6 to 12 inches-plus will be common from Rochester through the Twin Cities to Duluth and points in between.

• Snowfall totals of 15 inches-plus are possible with this storm, especially east metro into western Wisconsin.

• Wind pick up rapidly from the north, gusting at 30+ miles per hour tonight.

• Blowing snow will be a serious problem with blizzard conditions in open areas of eastern Minnesota

• This will likely be the biggest snowfall of winter for the Twin Cities and much of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The models have been very erratic with handling this storm. But have no doubt, this major winter storm is here with a vengeance through tonight. Here are the latest snowfall forecast trends with the storm. The heaviest snow bands favor eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Snow bursts

Intense lift increases this afternoon and tonight. Thundersnow has been reported and will create some intense snow bursts with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible through tonight. Look at how quickly the models pile up as much as 12 inches of snowfall in just a few hours tonight.

Storm track

Let's be honest, this has been a tough system to get a handle on with erratic forecast model output on track and timing. The models have finally agreed on a low pressure track through Wisconsin, and a rapidly deepening storm. That puts eastern Minnesota in the heavy snow zone. Click on the map below to animate.

Winds ramp up

Snow is falling straight down early this afternoon, but winds will ramp up rapidly by tonight. Gusts will exceed 40+ mph in southern Minnesota by late tonight.

Here's the view from NWS Duluth.

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And from the NWS La Crosse.

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Bottom line: The biggest storm of winter for many locations ramps up rapidly this afternoon and tonight.

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly in heavy snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Total storm snowfall will be 6 to 12 inches-plus in many areas, and could exceed 15 inches in a few locations. Wind will increase tonight and blizzard conditions will occur in open areas in southern Minnesota. Travel will be brutal if not impossible through tonight.

Stay safe Minnesota!