Crawling out of Deep Freeze, Saturday Clipper, precious California rains

Cryosphere Minnesota

In the high desert north of Tucson, Ariz., near the town of  Oracle there's a research facility called Biosphere 2.

Biosphere 2 is an Earth systems science research facility. The University of Arizona facility's mission is to serve as a center for research, outreach, teaching and lifelong learning about Earth, its living systems, and its place in the universe.

Biosphere 2 is a glassed in climate controlled facility that can simulate earth's climates and study changes.  Here's a description of the environments inside Biosphere 2.

Biosphere 2 contains representative biomes: a 1,900 square meter rainforest, an 850 square meter ocean with a coral reef, a 450 square meter mangrove wetlands, a 1,300 square meter savannah grassland, a 1,400 square meter fog desert, a 2,500 square meter agricultural system, a human habitat, and a below-ground infrastructure.

If the folks at Biosphere 2 ever need to study arctic environments, I know a place called Minnesota where conditions are perfect this winter.

Hey, any way to build a big glass dome over parts of Minnesota so Minnesotans can choose what climate we want to live in? Now that would be an interesting project.

Onward through sub-zero cold

The numbers are starting to approach record levels. Duluth has logged 18 consecutive sub-zero days now, and may threaten the all time record of 22 in a row by Monday night.

Here's the story from the Duluth National Weather Service.

Consecutive Days with a Low Temperature Below Zero at Duluth

Today, February 6th, marks the 18th day in a row with a low temperature below zero at Duluth. The last day a low temperature was zero or above was on January 19th with a low temperature of 13 degrees. The record for consecutive days of a minimum temperature below zero at Duluth is 22 days. A couple of stretches achieved that mark. The first 22 day string was from January 17th through February 7th 1936. The second was from January 10th through January 31st 1963. Low temperatures are forecasted below zero at Duluth through Monday night, thus the record  would be tied at that time.

The persistent sub-zero Upper Midwest chill has pushed Great Lakes ice cover to an impressive 76 percent.  Here's the map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.

Lake Superior is largely iced over. The is a small crescent with some open water off parts of the North Shore, and that may be academic after another sub-zero morning with lighter winds.

More from the Twin Cities NWS Facebook site.

One of the surest signs it has been a cold winter? Great Lakes ice analysis this morning shows that most of Lake Superior is now at least 90% ice covered. Only open water left in the Great Lakes are the deep water sections of Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Ontario.

The 76 percent Great Lakes Ice cover is the highest level in at least 18 years according to data from the Canadian Ice Service.

Meanwhile in the Twin Cities today is day  number 37 with a sub-zero low in the metro this winter, and the 12th day in a row.

We stagger slowly out of the deep freeze in the next 36 hours, and temps should make the  teens above zero Friday and Saturday.

It's not a huge warm up, but you'll notice a little less bite in the air mass by the weekend.

Saturday clipper

The next low pressure system swirls in Saturday. This one will bring some light snow, a general band of 1 to 3 inches from just north of the metro south into Iowa. Best chance for a plowable 2 to 3 inches? From the south metro to the Interstate 90 corridor.

'Operation Warm Up' next week?

The medium-range forecast models are all over the place regarding the potential warm up next week. The latest version warms temps into the 20s above zero by next Wednesday and Thursday for the metro. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ends the sub-zero string early next week for the metro.

It should be noted that some of the models, including NOAA's Global Forecast System, have been hiccuping between a modest warm up into the 20s to near 30, and a much warmer "full-blown thaw" type pattern by the week of Feb. 17. Take a look ta what the GFS was cranking out last night. A string of days in the 30s with high topping out around 47 degrees by Feb. 21?

That's probably way too optimistic, especially with a good 14 inches of snow on the ground.

The GFS has backed off this trend in consecutive model runs, and that's a sign that gives me pause in buying into a sustained dramatic warm up of that magnitude, at least for now.

Stay tuned.

Drought plagued California buys a break?

Here's some good weather news for northern California. A Pacific weather system is finally pushing rain and mountain snow into the Golden State.

Some of the seven-day precipitation totals are impressive, with some 7 inch rainfall bull's-eyes possible, and that translates into several feet of snow in the high Sierra.

It may not bust the worst drought in 500 years in California, but it's a great short term boost.