Bring on the Thaw, watching Thursday storm chances

Dripping icicles

It's about time for a gush of milder Pacific air. Today's thaw comes courtesy of Seattle as a more westerly wind flow pipes in milder air.

I was happy to roof rake what seemed like 2 feet of snow off the lower part my rooftop last night. Fingers crossed the imminent ice dams have a chance to melt away. I ran into one neighbor who says it is already "raining" in their dining room. Ouch.

We enjoy two very mild and quiet days today and tomorrow. The weather maps attack southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin again by Thursday, with the Twin Cities on the edge of another winter storm. headlines and watches are already flying today that clip the southeast metro. We'll have to watch what could be a shifting track on Thursday's system.

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If you just don't want to hear about any more winter storms at this point in the seasons just cover your ears and repeat (loudly) after me.

Lala-laaa -laaa-laaaa-la.

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Image: Twin Cities NWS

Thawing out

How much snow and ice can melt off roadways in 48 hours? Great question, and we'll get the answer  soon. The higher late February sun angle will work on pavement the next two days. I expect that roadways and your driveway will improve by late afternoon today and even better by Wednesday evening.

The snow covered lands will take a lot more than a two-day thaw, as fresh snow is an efficient reflector of incoming sunlight.

Here's a look at forecast highs today around the Midwest; 65 degrees in Kansas City, Mo.? If I jump in the car and hit Interstate 35, I can  get there by max temp time?

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Image: NOAA

The bigger picture shows just how warm this air mass is to the south. Yes, those are 80s along the Texas-Oklahoma border. At least it's really warm somewhere.

Here are the numbers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's  National Digital Forecast Database experimental display:

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Image: NOAA

We string together several hours above the thawing point today and tomorrow in the metro. What a concept.

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Image: Weatherpsark

Impressive snow cover

The warm air is melting snow rapidly across much of the USA, but snow remains deep in Minnesota. Here's the latest snow depth map from this morning from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.

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Image: NOAA

A foot and a half of snow won't disappear in two days in the metro. It's interesting to note though how close southwest Minnesota is to bare ground. Sioux Falls, S.D., will be snow free by late afternoon, and any southwest winds will pump in much warmer air, and eat away at the southwest edge of the snowpack in Minnesota.

Watching Thursday's storm

The maps are spinning up another winter storm Thursday. The track is still in question with this one. The latest model runs have the Twin Cities on the edge of this one.

That could mean little or no snow in the northwest metro -- and a plowable event in the southeast. Blizzard and winter storm watches are already flying out of local National Weather Service offices.

Geez guys, can we at least enjoy the thaw for a day?

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The best bet with the southerly track for heavy snow appears to be either side of a zone from Ames, Iowa, to Rochester, Minn., and in Wisconsin from La Crosse to Eau Claire. Keep an eye on this one if you are planning travel Thursday.

Meanwhile, enjoy the thaw!

Mystery Alaska

And finally they are wondering where winter went in Alaska this year. Central Park in New York City has seen more snow than Anchorage, Alaska.

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While it has chilled off in Alaska recently it was the warmest January on record for many locations.

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Port Alsworth set an all time January record high of 62 degrees.

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The record warmth this winter is part of an unusual jet stream pattern that's bringing cold to Minnesota, snow to the east, flooding to the U.K. and warmth to Sochi, where they are having trouble keeping snow in place for Olympic alpine events.

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Image: NASA's Earth Observatory.

Is the irony of Arctic warming creating jet stream patterns that bring cold deep into the U.S.? More on the warm pattern in Alaska and northwest Canada from NASA's Earth Observatory.

While much of the continental United States endured several cold snaps in January 2014, record-breaking warmth gripped Alaska. Spring-like conditions set rivers rising and avalanches tumbling.

This map depicts land surface temperature anomalies in Alaska for January 23–30, 2014. Based on data from theModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, the map shows how 2014 temperatures compared to the 2001–2010 average for the same week. Areas with warmer than average temperatures are shown in red; near-normal temperatures are white; and areas that were cooler than the base period are blue. Gray indicates oceans or areas where clouds blocked the satellite from collecting usable data.

A persistent ridge of high pressure off the Pacific Coast fueled the warm spell, shunting warm air and rainstorms to Alaska instead of California, where they normally end up. The last half of January was one of the warmest winter periods in Alaska’s history, with temperatures as much as 40°F (22°C) above normal on some days in the central and western portions of the state, according to Weather Underground’s Christopher Bart. The all-time warmest January temperature ever observed in Alaska was tied on January 27 when the temperature peaked at 62°F (16.7°C) at Port Alsworth. Numerous other locations—including Nome, Denali Park Headquarters, Palmer, Homer, Alyseka, Seward, Talkeetna, and Kotzebue—all set January records.

The combination of heat and rain has caused Alaska’s rivers to swell and brighten with sediment, creating satellite views reminiscent of spring and summer runoff. On January 25, 2014, the Aqua satellite collected this image of sediment flowing into the Gulf of Alaska from numerous rivers along the state’s southeastern coast.

All of the heat, moisture, and melting snow has elevated the risk of avalanches. A series of extremely large avalanches in late January sent snow and debris crashing onto the Richardson Highway, blocking the road and cutting the port town of Valdez off from highway access. The avalanches dumped a mound of snow 100 feet (30 meters) tall and up to 1,500 feet (460 meters) long on the highway.