Breaking Good? Thaw potential next week, major snow ‘bombs’ blast USA first

Light at the end of the tunnel?

It's been a great winter for snow lovers. Many Minnesotans have enjoyed what may be the prettiest and most consistent coat of winter white in several years.

The abundance of "Champagne Powder" on the landscape is perfect for skiers, snowmobilers, resorts and all things winter. It's also white gold and soon to be liquid gold for our lakes and river as it melts in the next two months. Yes, the ginormous snow plies at the end of your driveway will melt.

Now, my mail is running about 9-1 in favor of Minnesotans who are ready for a warm-up at this point in winter. A really big sustained warm-up. Those of you in the 90 percent  may be on the verge of getting your wish as soon as next week.

Hang in there!

'Nordic lite'

Sometimes in Minnesota it's all about perspective. Today and the past few days temps struggle through the teens. On Thanksgiving, the headlines would be blaring about a cold wave. This time of year teens qualify as "not bad."

Highs today stall in the lower teens in the south and struggle to reach zero up north as the next wave of arctic air oozes south this week. One more week of funky shades of purple on the weather map.

Look for a return of wind chill advisories Wednesday through Friday morning in the Upper Midwest as chills plunge into the -25 to -35 range again. At least you're getting the most out of the heavy coat this winter.

Status quo

Temps bounce along with sub-zero nights and daytime high above zero this week. The coldest days will be Wednesday and Thursday, and temps hit bottom Thursday morning of this week with -10 to -18 around the metro. We moderate slightly into the teens again by this weekend.

Breaking the back of winter?

It's still too soon to say the end of winter is near. Last spring in Minnesota was proof of that.

But scanning the maps this week for trends I see a consistent trend by the forecast models and short term climate products toward a shift in the jet stream wave pattern over the northern hemisphere by late next week. That should bring much milder Pacific air masses into Minnesota and much of the northern U.S. When winds blow from Seattle instead of the Yukon in February, we warm up.

Dramatically.

Here's a look at the prevailing jet stream pattern so far this winter. The dreaded polar vortex has been wobbling around Hudson Bay, dealing Minnesota and the Upper Midwest a steady diet of frigid arctic air masses.

Here's a look at the developing jet stream pattern by late next week and into the week of Feb. 17.

If the polar vortex lifts into northwest Canada and Alaska as these maps forecast, that will open the door for a (sustained?) Pacific flow into most of the U.S. That means temps are likely to soar into the 30s and possibly even 40s in Minnesota by late next week and into the week of Feb. 17.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is already starting to pick up on the trend for late next week.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System 16-day output continues temps well into the 30s into Valentine's Day and the week of Feb. 17, with a couple of chilly speed bumps in between.

Bottom line: If this pattern change verifies temps may run (mostly) above average starting next week and running through at least February 20th. This jet stream shift could signal a longer term trend that may produce above average temps into late February and March, or not.

Stay tuned!

Snowmageddon: the sequel(s)

Central park picked up 8 inches of snow Monday. Round two is winding up in Kansas today, and streaking a band of snow east through the central U.S. heading for the northeast again. Round three may be the granddaddy of them all -- a major snow bomb that could bring havoc with one to two feet of snow and near hurricane force winds to the northeast Sunday and Monday.

Get ready for more major Snowmageddon style headlines, and more creative storm names coming this week.

Round #2 Tuesday-Wednesday storm

You just don's see a red stripe this long on the weather maps that often. At least 27 states are under winter storm warnings with the next system plowing across the country through Wednesday.

Here's a look at the parent low as it deepens and pushes snow east over the next 24 hours via NOAA's Rapid Refresh model. Click on the image to animate.

The storm is winding up from Colorado to Kansas today, and streaking east.

Here's the scene in Lawrence, Kan., this morning as the snow starts to accumulate more quickly, and the salt/sand trucks hit the street.

Here's a look at forecast snowfall totals. A good stripe of 6" to 12"+ looks likely from Kansas City to south of Chicago.

My son Luke is a freshman Jayhawk at the University of Kansas. He never saw a snow day in nine years in Minnetonka Schools. He had to go to Kansas to get hist first snow day. Rock Chalk!

The snow spreads east today and Wednesday. The snowy stripe will put down six to 12 inch snowfall totals all the way to New England.

 The Big One: Major 'snow bomb' and 'snow-icane' could blast Northeast this weekend

Forecast: A major run on shovels and snow blowers at Home Depots in New York, Philly, and Boston this week.

This week's storms may be just the appetizer for the Northeast. The Big One appears to be rolling in Sunday.

A major nor'easter with the potential for one to two feet of snow and near hurricane force winds may virtually shut down  much of the northeast U.S. Sunday and Monday.

Take a look at the GFS scenario by Sunday night, as the potential for 'bomb cyclogenesis' drives what could be an epic snow hurricane for Philly, New York, Boston and surrounding areas.

The tight pressure gradient with Sunday's storm has the potential to bring wind gusts to 50 to 60+ mph, and heavy wind driven snow to the Northeast. This could be the biggest blizzard of the winter for many Northeast Cities.

Stay tuned!