Warm front arrives tomorrow, ‘snow drought’ next 2 weeks?

Winter math

The abacus in the Huttner Weather Lab is getting a good workout these days.

• 62 hours in a row at or below zero this week at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

• 22 days at or below zero so far this winter at MSP (assuming Thursday morning sub-zero forecast verifies)

• 12 days at or below zero all of last winter

• 17.3 inches snowfall at MSP Airport so far this winter

• -7.2 inches vs. average for season snowfall so far

• Less than 2 inches snowfall forecast in much of central and southern Minnesota for the next 2 weeks?

Warming Trend

We crawl out of the temperature basement in the next 36 hours in Minnesota. One more sub-zero night tonight, before a long overdue warm front arrives Thursday. Here's a look at temperature trends as we head into the weekend, which includes a good shot at our January thaw in the coming week.

Pattern change means milder weeks ahead?

The shift to a milder winter weather pattern for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest may stick around a while. The longer term upper air pattern is shifting, and Minnesota should be alternating between mild thaw like periods, with brief cold air punches in between.

Here's a look at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's still experimental North American Forecast Ensemble System which uses a series of models to create a longer range forecast product.

The trend for the rest of January is for closer to average temps around Minnesota, with warmer then average weather nosing in ever closer from the west. Note the absence of any large scale colder than average areas in the U.S. in the last weeks of January.

Look for many more days in the 20s and 30s above zero, and far fewer sub-zero nights in Minnesota starting on Friday and lasting the rest of this month.

Snow drought creeping in?

All the headlines have been blaring extreme cold lately, but I'm keeping one eye on what looks like a developing mid-winter snow drought for most of Minnesota. January has produced only .3 inches snowfall in the Twin Cities so far. The last significant snowfall in the metro was Christmas Eve when about 3 inches fell.

For the season, the metro snowfall total of  17.3 inches is running more than 7 inches below average.

I'm always hesitant to make longer term snowfall projections in winter, because storms can pop up on the weather maps out of nowhere with as little as 24 hours notice.

But looking ahead the next two weeks I don't see any significant snow events winding up for the metro and most of Minnesota as this point. Southeast Minnesota looks to get some snow Friday evening, and that may just graze the metro with a dusting -- unless the system comes farther north.

Here's a look at projected snowfall for the next 120 hours, from NOAA's Global Forecast System. Storms appear ready to detour around Minnesota in the next week or two.

If we don't get any significant snowfall over the next two weeks, we'll be running a bit of a snow drought as we look ahead into February.

Stay tuned!