Driver’s Test: Thursday AM clipper brings another snowy rush hour

Behind the wheel

Welcome to another wintry rush hour driver's test in Minnesota. It's as if Minnesotans have to take a winter driving test every three or four days just to keep our usually exceptional winter driving skills intact.

I'm more grateful than ever for the Minnesota Department of Transportation and all the city and county road crews who keep us on the roads in winter after the scenes from Atlanta after just a couple inches of snow caused gridlock and stranded drivers and school kids for up to 30 hours.

I'm also grateful to my fellow Minnesota drivers who (usually) drive remarkably well in what winter dishes out. We're lucky to have a great local National Weather Service office and a high level of media meteorologists who do a great job of keeping us ahead of a steady stream of winter storms, blizzards and polar outbreaks.

We may all need a little gratitude Thursday morning, as our next clipper brings another swath of snow, just in time for another slick morning rush. Here's the system breakdown.

The system

Not a true Alberta Clipper, this system slides due east from Wyoming's Big Horn Mountains through South Dakota's Black Hills and into southern Minnesota, tracking along the Interstate 90 corridor.

Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Rapid Refresh model on the track and snow shield that busts out over the southern half Minnesota into Thursday morning.

Timing

Snow breaks out after midnight in western Minnesota, and spreads east into the Twin Cities between 3 a.m. and 4 am. Snow continues through morning rush hour, before tapering off  from west to east between about 9 a.m. and 11 a.m. in the metro and eastern Minnesota.

The heaviest snow bands seem to favor a swath from the south metro through the I-90 corridor.

• Sioux Falls, S.D., radar loop

• Twin Cities radar loop

Snowfall totals

Overall, a general swath of 1 to 3 inches looks likely from the Twin Cities south to the Iowa border. There may be a heavier band in the 2 to 4 inch range that forms just south of the metro to along the I-90 corridor.

Here's NOAA's North American Mesoscale Forecast System model of snowfall distribution with this system.

In the Twin Cities, an overall range of 1 to 3 inches seems sensible to me. The best chance for heavier totals may favor the south metro.

Bottom line and impact

• Expect snowfall to spread into western Minnesota after midnight.

• Snowfall should reach the Twin Cities by around 3-4 a.m.

• Snow will be coming down during morning rush Thursday

• Expect slick and snow covered roads for the morning rush, plan on extra time for the Thursday morning commute

• Snowfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are likely by 9 a.m. from St. Cloud and Willmar into the Twin Cities and most of southern half of Minnesota.

• A band of 2 to 4 inches may fall south of the metro toward I-90 including Redwood Falls,  Mankato, Owatonna, Worthington, Albert Lea, Winona, Rochester and La Crosse, Wis.

• Snowfall should taper off from west to east between 9 a.m. and 11 a.m. Thursday morning in eastern Minnesota.

• Gusty northwest winds from 15 to 30 mph will cause some blowing and drifting in open areas Thursday, but full blown blizzard conditions are not likely.

• Temps will fall back through the teens again Thursday.

• 33.3 inches season snowfall at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport through Wednesday

• 33 inches average snowfall at MSP Airport season to date

• 12 inches snow depth at MSP Wednesday

Snowfall dead on average

You can see from the numbers above we're dead bang on average for snowfall so far this winter season in the metro.

It's interesting to note that while Minnesota has done well on snow this winter, bare ground is close by to the south and west. Here's the latest snowfall map from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.

Snow lovers enjoy!