Friday clipper and warming trend, wintry numbers piling up

Silver Linings

There are several good consequences from all the cold and snow we've seen this winter. But on mornings like today, they can be hard to appreciate.

Welcome to the third coldest morning so far in the Twin Cities.

• -16 degrees this morning at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

• 3rd coldest temp so far at MSP this winter (-20 on Jan. 5, -23 on Jan. 6)

• 27 days at or below zero so far this winter

• 12 days at or below zero all of last winter

• 23 days at or below zero on average in winter

• -6.7 degrees temps vs. average at MSP so far this winter (December and January)

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Friday clipper and warming trend

We bottom out today on cold for a few days. A warming trend kicks in tonight and Friday, and temps should top out in the low 30s sometime Friday afternoon. The warm up is brief, and the next arctic front drops in Saturday. The mother lode comes in Monday and Tuesday, as we plunge into the teens below zero once again.

Friday snowfall

Friday's clipper may be a 1-2 punch. A shot of "warm advection snow" may hit in the morning, then the main clipper sails in Friday afternoon and evening. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches seem likely in the metro by Friday night, with heavier totals north and east.

Here's the North American Mesoscale forecast system's snowfall layout.

Extended outlook: wintry

There are signs we may moderate slightly the next two weeks, but overall I don't see any huge, warmer pattern changes.

Super chilly Super Bowl?

You mean it might be cold in Jersey in early February? What a concept. If the the NFL wanted a cold Super Bowl on Feb. 2 it looks like they may get it. Right now the maps favor a cold but mainly dry day with a chilly northwest breeze. The  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System is cranking out temps in the teens right now for Super Bowl Sunday.

The Farmer's Almanac grabbed headlines in October by predicting a big snow for the Super Bowl. The forecast could change, but so far it looks like they missed the mark. I'm shocked.

The Farmers’ Almanac’s official forecast for February 1st -3rd states “Intense storm, heavy rain, snow, strong winds. This could seriously impact Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2.” The Almanac goes on to say that the first ten days of February in the Northeast region of the US could be quite volatile and especially turbulent.

Each year the Farmers’ Almanac predicts weather for 16 months at a time. It includes forecasts for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and other Super Bowls. “While New Jersey is no stranger to messy winter conditions,” states Geiger, “the idea of holding the one of the biggest sporting events in an area that traditionally experiences cold temperatures in February can be a controversial one.”

How did they make these predictions?

The Farmers’ Almanac’s weather forecasts are based on a very specific and reliable formula that dates back to 1818. It’s a mathematical and astronomical formula that takes things like sunspot activity, tidal action of the moon, and position of the planets into consideration. People who follow the Farmers’ Almanac predictions claim they are accurate about 80-85% of the time.

For entertainment purposes only,  as they say.