Flash Freeze 2014: Coldest in 17 years? Records challenged, -30 in metro suburbs

Historic cold wave

This is so much more than your average Minnesota winter cold snap.

For younger Minnesotans, this will be the coldest weather in a lifetime. For the rest of us it may be the coldest temps in a little over 17 years, if the thermometer reaches the potentially low of -27 at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport early Monday. The last time the mercury plunged to -27 at MSP? Dec. 26, 1996.

The Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service sums up this "historic" cold snap.

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Image: Twin Cities NWS

Life-threatening cold wave

There's no doubt about it, the coming cold wave will be not just bitter. It will be life-threatening to anyone caught outside for more than a few minutes from Saturday night through Wednesday morning.

I hope we don't see any bad news stories about exposure casualties in the next few days, but I am very concerned. Take care of those friends and strangers around you in this bitter cold wave.

The La Crosse, Wis., National Weather Service has a nice way of laying out the timeline.

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Image: La Crosse NWS

How low will it go?

Many are focused what the eventual lowest temp will be in the Twin Cities, where will we eventually bottom out? That's important historically, but I want to keep some focus on the bigger picture. The duration and intensity of this cold wave is going to be challenging, even dangerous.

The core of the coldest air passes over Minnesota Sunday into Monday. We will likely bottom out around -23 to -27 in the inner metro core and at MSP Airport Monday morning.  The string of consecutive sub-zero hours could be around 88 hours. Here's a look at the likely temp scenario from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model.

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Image: Weatherspark

30-below in the suburbs?

Many Twin Cities suburbs may wake to -30 by Monday morning.

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Image: Twin Cities NWS

Monday: High of -17?

Monday could be the most brutal day for the next several years in Minnesota.

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Image: Twin Cities NWS

 Records may fall

The most likely records to be broken? Monday's daily record low minimum and maximum temps. Here are the upcoming records from the Twin Cities NWS.

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Image: Twin Cities NWS

How many sub-zero hours?

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In case you're counting here's some good info from the Twin Cities NWS Facebook page.

The temperature is forecast to drop below zero in the Twin Cities Saturday evening and stay below zero into Wednesday morning (88 hours). This will compare to a below zero period of 86 hours from 11pm January 12, 2009 to 1pm January 16, 2009; and 93 hours from 5pm January 31 1996 to 1pm February 4 1996. The record for consecutive hours below zero in the Twin Cities is 186 hours between 8pm on December 31 1911 to 1pm on January 8 1912.

As bad as this one looks, it may not even crack the top 10 for consecutive sub-zero hours. Here are the cold hard facts on sub-zero hours from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

January thaw in sight next weekend?

Don't bet the farm just yet, but I'm increasingly optimistic about the prospects for a January thaw by the weekend of Jan. 11-12. The upper air pattern becomes more zonal, blowing from west to east (Seattle) instead of from the Arctic Circle by next Sunday.

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Image: NOAA

That will pull milder air from the south into Minnesota at the surface.

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Image: NOAA

The result should be temps as much as 50-60 degrees warmer by next Sunday, Jan. 12 (+30s) vs. Monday (-20s).

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Image: Weatherspark

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center agrees. Here's the updated 6-10 day temp outlook. Red on a weather map over Minnesota? What a concept!

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Image: NOAA

Stay warm, and hang in there!