Coldest air in several years ahead, temps moderate late next week
-46F in Embarrass this morning (Coldest observed temp in Minnesota so far this winter)
-20F likely in the metro by Monday morning
3 - the number of times Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has hit -20F since 2000
84 consecutive hours below zero likely at MSP between Saturday night and Wednesday morning.
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Cold Weather Endurance Test
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It's a good news bad news temperature scenario depending on your perspective the next week. Minnesotans are among the best cold weather trained people on earth, but this is silly, even dangerous cold if you are caught unprepared.
The coldest air in several years is headed for Minnesota Sunday into early next week. This one is the mother lode, the bonanza, the big enchilada of arctic high pressure systems.
The good news? It may actually be so big it will effectively "drain" the coldest air from the Arctic Circle and northern Canada for a few weeks, and lead to milder days ahead for Minnesota as we move through January. But first we have to pay a sort of arctic weather tax that will invade Minnesota this weekend.
Short term pain for long term gain? Whatever I have to tell myself to get by in Minnesota winter.
Coldest in 4+ years?
Let's cut right to the chase. After a briefly milder spell Friday into Friday night, temps will begin to tumble again by midday Saturday as the strongest arctic front of the season sweeps through. Here's a look at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model output, which shows huge swings in temps over the next week.
The Twin Cities looks to endure about 84 consecutive hours below zero starting late Saturday evening through next Wednesday morning. Signs of a big warm up -- temps as much as 50 degrees warmer -- appear by the weekend of Jan. 11-12.
I'm not buying the Euro notion of -30F for the metro just yet, but -20 looks very likely by Monday morning. It would be only the third time since 2000 we've managed to hit -20 at MSP Airport., and the first time in 4 years.
Most recent readings at/below -20F at MSP Airport
-22F Jan. 16, 2009
-21F Jan. 15, 2009
-24F Jan. 30, 2004
Here's some more perspective on the coming cold wave from the Twin Cities National Weather Service.
Snowy dusting Friday night
Arctic air loves to pave the way by squeezing out some fresh fluff with the advancing cold front. That will likely happen again Friday night, as another inch or so decorates the metro overnight.
Moderation Ahead
The cold eases in the longer range forecast, with a more Pacific flow pattern. Temps may stay mostly above zero as we move into mid-January. What a concept!
