Back to (January) reality, next clipper brings plowable snow tonight

At least you got to wash the car.

After a mild weekend thaw in southern Minnesota and an icy Sunday morning in Duluth, January returns to more typical form this week. A sun cloud mix across Minnesota today gives way to an incoming Alberta Clipper tonight.

This system looks fairly potent, and will be a productive snow producer. Expect enough snow to shovel and plow, and a snowy and slick morning rush hour Tuesday.

System Timing:

Most of Monday looks nice in southern Minnesota. Some sun and temps in the upper 20s to near 30 will keep roads in good shape today.

Snowfall picks up in the Red River Valley today, spreads east along Interstate 94 toward St. Cloud later this afternoon, and toward the Twin Cities from west to east between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. tonight.

• Red River Valley radar loop

• Twin Cities radar loop

Heaviest band along I-94?

The system centers on the I-94 corridor. A broad band of 1 inch to 3 inches looks likely, but a narrower bad of 2 inches to 4-plus inches may center in the I-94 corridor from Fargo through Alexandria, Minn., St. Cloud and toward I-90 near La Crosse, Wis.

Snowfall forecasts vary by model, but a healthy 2 inches to 3 inches looks quite probably for most of the Twin Cities metro.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System (GFS) is the most aggressive with totals on this system. NOAA's North American Mesoscale Forecast System has been a little more conservative, backing off on totals slightly in the overnight and early Tuesday model runs. Overall a good swath of 1 inch to 3-plus inches looks likely, with the potential for more in southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Bottom line:

• Expect snowfall to spread along the I-94 corridor today from northwest to southeast

• Snow should increase across the Twin Cities from west to east between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. tonight

• Snowfall will be steady overnight into Tuesday morning

• A wide swath of 1 inch to 3 inches is likely by morning, with locally heavier totals possible especially in southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin

• Tuesday morning rush will be snow covered and slippery

• Windy and colder weather kicks in Tuesday afternoon with blowing snow in open areas

Roller coaster week ahead

Temps take a ride this week as cold fronts and warm fronts sail overhead and battle for control of Minnesota. As the fronts sail by, snowy dustings ride in.

January thaw II?

After a chilly Friday, it looks like another pacific invasion will bring another potential warming trend and thaw from about Sunday to next Wednesday.

In and out of cold air?

The next 16 days look  milder than average  overall, but temps will swing wildly at times between colder and warmer days. Here's a look at the GFS 16-day output, which shows ideas of cold/mild trends.

Overall temps should run milder than average the rest of January, but expect some abrupt swings between sharp cold fronts and milder Pacific breezes.