Coating to 1 inch of snow likely by tonight, coldest in 9 months Saturday?

Wintery Greeting

It seems the winter of 2013-'14 intends to be a good guest. It arrives in measured fashion. No big whopping November snow blitzes on the horizon this year.

Thursday, Nov. 21 may be the day we can look back at and say wintery weather really started in Minnesota. A minor clipper with a coating to an inch or so of snow would barely get our attention in February. It's a minor news event in Minnesota in November.

Anyone lucky enough to have Gopher Football tickets for Saturday?

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The playing field at TCF Bank Stadium is cleared prior to the Vikings-Bears game on Monday, Dec. 20, 2010. (MPR Photo/Brandt Williams)

If you've only heard tall tales about 'The Frozen Tundra' days of Vikings football at Met Stadium, Saturday may be your best opportunity to live them first hand. Vikings fans take note, this is your November and December future at The Bank until the new Vikings Stadium is ready to go, where you can watch winter unveiling from your warm cozy seat through the massive glass walls.

Saturday could be the coldest day in Minnesota in about 9 months.

Welcome to winter in Minnesota!

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Image: Twin Cities NWS

Thursday snow

Thursday transitions to a decidedly wintry feel as the day wears on. A wave of low pressure tracking for Chicago will throw moisture up over our descending cold dome. The result will be snow, mostly on the lighter side.

Scattered rain or snow showers may ease into Minnesota during the day Thursday, but it appears the bulk of the steady light snow will fall between about 6pm Thursday evening and 4 a.m. Friday in the Twin Cities metro area and eastern Minnesota. Here's a look at the timing breakdown according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model, which has been pretty consistent with this system.

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Image: NOAA GFS data via Weatherspark

Thursday night's snow does not look heavy, but light snow for a few hours should accumulate. The best bet for snow totals seem to center around a coating north of the metro toward St. Cloud, to as much as 1 to 2 inches south of the metro. There could be some isolated 2 inch totals, especially south of the Twin Cities toward Mankato, Owatonna and Interstate 90 corridor towns like Rochester and Albert Lea.

Here's the North American Mesoscale model's idea of how the snow lays out with this system.

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Image: wxcaster.com

Pinning it down for the metro, the scat moisture with this system leads most solution to between a snowy coating, and around 1 to 2 inches on the high end. Many lawns and driveways may end up with less than an inch of new snow by Friday morning. Not a big deal, but with temperatures falling into the mid-20s, even an inch can grease up the roads early Friday morning. Keep that in mind, especially early in the season when we're all still working on relearning our winter driving chops!

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Cold next

The first real shot of polar air is headed south Saturday. A stiff northwest wind will blow in air with a decidedly arctic feel. Here's the wind map for 1  p.m. Saturday, about the time fans will be strolling into The Bank to watch the Gopher-Wisconsin football game.

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Image: NOAA

Factor in the wind and it will feel closer to zero in the Twin Cities, with sub-zero wind chills knocking on the doorstep. Yes, we'll get our winter macho back this weekend. Dress appropriately!

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Image: NOAA

Temperatures Saturday will hover in the upper teens to near 20 degrees. The last time the Twin Cities saw a high below 20 degrees was about 9 months ago on Feb. 20, when the mercury managed to struggle to 19 degrees.

Daylight fades fast

No wonder why I feel like I'm living in a tunnel this time of year. It's dark when I wake up for Morning Edition. It's dark when Tom Crann and I chat weather at 5:45 p.m. It's usually cloudy in between. Here's look at how much daylight we're losing these days from the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service.

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Image: Twin Cities NWS

Soil freezing up

It's that time of the year when even the soil starts to freeze up. Here's a look at soil temps in Chanhassen this month. Notice how the soil temperatures dip below freezing at times at 2-inch depth in recent days.

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Image: Twin Cities NWS