Storm rages east, Minnesota shivers; end of seasonal hurricane forecasts?

Geo-fortunate

Minnesota is in a good place this Thanksgiving week. Yes, it's cold. But cold air often means a storm track shoved to the south.

Cold arctic high pressure systems are the equivalent of 350 pound offensive linemen in football. Storms can't come through, they have to detour around big arctic highs.

This map of the 300 millibar winds shows how our cold Nordic air dome over Minnesota has shoved the impressive storm into the eastern US.

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Image: NOAA via San Francisco State University

Anatomy of a holiday nor'easter

What do you get when you combine a massive storm system, the busiest travel day of the year, and the most populated corridor in the U.S.? Major travel nightmares. This storm will impact 80-90 million people in the eastern U.S.

Here's a look at the storm winding up the east coast Wednesday. The good news? It should move quickly into Canada and not linger. Weather will improve dramatically as Thanksgiving Day wears on. Click on the image below to animate and watch the storm deepen and race northeast.

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Image: NOAA

Storm affecting 26 states

By my count late Tuesday, at least 26 states have some kind of storm related advisory or warning in place. This is a large storm, and it pretty much dominates the eastern half of the U.S. with some form of rain, fog, wind, cold, snow and ice.

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Image: NOAA

Flooding rains

The moisture pipeline is full and this system pulls in and feeds off of moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic.

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Image: NOAA

And then there's the snow...

Flood warnings near the coast, but it's cold enough for snow on the system's backside. Here's the latest on the best chance for 6-plus inches from West Virginia to Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania, Buffalo and Jamestown in the lake-effect snow belts of western New York, to Ottawa and Montreal.

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Image: NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Here's the latest storm total snowfall forecast from the Buffalo, N.Y., National Weather Service.

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Image: Buffalo, New York NWS

Trouble in the air

You knew it would happen. Forecast airport delays took hold late Tuesday. The biggest early trouble spots? Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., Raleigh, N.C., Baltimore and New York's La Guardia Airport. Look for delays to increase Wednesday in the northeast. Here's the map as the storm move northeast from flightstats.com.

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Image: flightstats.com

Bottom Line: The storm impact peaks Wednesday in northeast cities including Washington D.C, New York, Philadelphia and Boston. Wind gusts along the coast of 40 mph to 60 mph will cause beach erosion.

Flooding rains of 2 inches to 4 inches will trigger localized urban flooding in major eastern cities. Heavy snow will clog roads in western New York and Pennsylvania. Conditions will improve rapidly Thanksgiving Day, except in lake effect snow belts. Weather will be much improved by Black Friday and the rest of the holiday weekend.

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Self deprecating humor from CSU forecasters on results of the 2013 seasonal hurricane forecast. Image: Colorado State University.

CSU's seasonal hurricane forecasts a thing of the past?

I feel bad for Dr. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University. These two dedicated and talented hurricane specialists have spent the better part of their careers attempting, sometimes successfully, to forecast seasonal hurricane numbers months in advance.

But the truth is there probably just aren't enough strong atmospheric links to dependably predict Atlantic hurricane numbers with great skill each year.

I've written before in this space on how little actual value I believe those forecasts provide. Even if you accurately predict tropical cyclone numbers, it doesn't show any skill in how many hurricanes will make landfall, or when and where they will strike. There is much greater usefulness in the kind of short term hurricane forecasting from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center.

That's why I'm not totally surprised that CSU may discontinue the issuance of seasonal hurricane forecasts. Here's an excerpt from an interesting write up from the San Francisco Chronicle.

Although there were 13 named storms this year, Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecasts were a complete bust in terms of overall activity.

Many seasonal forecasters predicted that overall activity — measured in terms of the number of storms, their intensity and their duration, would be as much as twice as high as average levels. Instead activity was only about 30 percent of typical levels, or one of the five quietest years in the last half century of Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Now comes word that the dean of seasonal forecasting, William Gray and his co-author Phil Klotzbach, of Colorado State University, may be ending their forecasts. It has nothing to do with their poor forecast this year, they say.

Here's the suspension notice from CSU.

NOTICE OF FORECAST SUSPENSION

The Tropical Meteorology Project has been issuing forecasts for the past thirty years. These predictions have served as a valuable information tool for insurance interests, emergency managers and coastal residents alike.

While these forecasts were largely developed utilizing funding from various government agencies, recent attempts at obtaining continued grant funding have been unsuccessful. Funding from several insurance companies enabled the continuation of these forecasts in recent years. However, the forecast team has recently lost some of its financial support from industry.

Consequently, new sources of revenue are required to keep the forecast going. Interested parties are invited to contact Phil Klotzbach directly via email at philk@atmos.colostate.edu for additional discussion of potentialsponsorship opportunities.

The Tropical Meteorology Project will suspend issuing seasonal forecasts beginning in April 2014, unless additional funding for the forecasts is forthcoming. The CSU forecast team is currently seeking partnerships with the private sector in order to continue these predictions. Please see the sponsorship brochure if you are interested in supporting the forecast team.

This is a sad, but probably inevitable moment. Good luck to these dedicated hurricane specialists.