November ‘light’ for now, scanning the maps for signs of snow

Our November light weather pattern is holding for now.

It looks like I'll get one more shot at getting up the last of the Weather Lab leaves in the next 48 hours.

Afternoon temps in the 50s will feel pretty nice both Friday and Saturday. Saturday's showers look fairly light, less than a quarter inch, for the metro at this point, with soaking rains more likely to focus on southeast Minnesota.

The bigger weather picture still looks like November. A cool front blows in Sunday. Cold air with highs in the 30s lingers through next Tuesday, then milder southerly breezes return.

I'm still scanning the maps for signs of big snow, but so far no big storms are in sight. There will be some snow, a few inches, in northern Minnesota Saturday night and Sunday from Bemidji to International Falls.

There's also a possible system spinning up by next Friday favoring central and northern Minnesota, but it's too early to be precise about anything yet.

Last year we held off on "the big one" until Dec. 9 when 10.5 inches fell at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. It didn't last. Snow depth was down to 1 inch by Dec. 16 as temps warmed into the 40s in the days following the storm.

This year? Stay tuned.

Drought hangs tough

The percentage of drought in Minnesota remained essentially unchanged this week. The epicenter of moderate drought remains focused on the Twin Cities and the Minnesota River Valley into southwest Minnesota.

Here's the updated U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday.

Mild air lingers through Saturday

Southerly air flow means 50s south and 40s north Friday and Saturday. Friday features plenty of sun, but scattered showers move in Saturday.

The best chance for steady soaking rains favor southeast Minnesota.

The system will gain steam, and moisture as it treks east. The best chance for a  half-inch rainfall? Southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin. Some 1 inch-plus totals will fall centered on Lake Michigan as the system slides through.

Sunday cold front

Chilly northwest winds kick in again Sunday. Sunday's rain showers may end as a few flurries or snow showers Sunday night, but little if any accumulation is likely at this point.

Temps tumble through the 30s by Sunday night, and likely stay below freezing for most of Minnesota until Wednesday afternoon.

Seeley: Temps tumble and ice forms up north

We haven't exactly hit the deep freeze button in Minnesota just yet, but temps are beginning to tumble. Cold night are now causing some ponds, small lakes and bays to freeze over up north. Here's Wednesday's NASA MODIS Terra shot from northern Minnesota near Bowstring Lake, north of Grand Rapids, showing some lakes iced over and some open water.

Here's a preview of University of Minnesota climate expert and  MPR colleague Mark Seeley's Weather Talk this week.

Topic: Coldest temperature of the autumn season

Monday and Tuesday, November 11-12, this week brought the coldest temperatures of the autumn season so far. Thief River Falls reported a low of just 0 degrees F on the 11th, while Fosston (Polk County), Lakefield, and Pipestone reported their first readings of 0 degrees F on the morning of the 12th (Tue). Windom reported the state low on Tuesday the 12th with -1 degrees F. Many other observers reported lows in the single digits F. On Monday, November 11th Fosston reported a daily maximum temperature of just 16 degrees F, while Bemidji reported a new cold maximum temperature record of just 14 degrees F. Fortunately, the arctic cold was short-lived and temperatures warmed by 35-40 degrees F by Wednesday (Nov 13).

Topic: Lake ice forming, then thawing

With the colder than normal temperatures dominating from November 5-12 some observers were reporting surface ice on ponds and shallow lakes. Even the shallow bays of lakes like Vermilion and Mille Lacs were showing ice earlier this week. Water temperatures along the western shores of Lake Superior had fallen in the range of 34-36 degrees F. With a return of 40 degrees F temperatures some of the ice in shallow lakes was melting or shrinking in coverage. Moderating temperatures near normal and above normal will probably keep ice cover from fully developing until much later this month.