Mixed bag weekend, what we still don’t know about Super Typhoon Haiyan
Indian Spring?
Three consecutive days in the 50s in mid-November? 'Indian Spring' may be the best we can do this year for Indian Summer.
56 degrees - High at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Friday (+15 degrees vs. average)
1 month until sunset starts getting later again at MSP airport (December 16th)
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We've enjoyed the return to sunny, mild days this week. Minnesotans know we live on borrowed weather time as we inch toward late November.
But in mid-November your favorite weatherperson can't take their eyes off the weather maps.
Case in point. This weekend's 2-part low pressure system moving into the Upper Midwest looks fairly benign at first glance. It should produce a few spotty showers Saturday and Sunday.
But as the 2nd low phases over Wisconsin Sunday with colder air, it could spin up a narrow band of significant snowfall in the Badger State, hitting Michigan's Upper Peninsula on its way out. A near miss for Minnesota.
Next Friday we may or may not get so lucky. The longer-range maps hint at a possible snow chance next Friday.
Stay tuned, but don't hold your breath. Weather maps a week out in mid-November are a little like roulette in Vegas. Better to bet red or black than try and pick a number.
Mixed bag weekend
You'll have to pick your spots this weekend and dodge a few showers to get those last leaves up. Temps may nudge 50 Saturday in the metro with spotty showers. Overall rainfall looks to be under .25" this weekend.
Roller coaster next week
Next week opens chilly, then southerly winds return with milder air by Tuesday and Wednesday. Here's the Euro (ECMWF) model's take on temps next week for the metro.
Super Typhoon Haiyan: What we know... and don't know so far
A full week after Haiyan there is still plenty we don't know, and some things we may never know about one of the strongest storms ever recorded on earth.
Satellite estimates can tell us a lot, but there are few direct measurements of actual wind speed and pressure near the storm center at landfall. Dr. Jeff Masters elaborates on what we still don't know about Haiyan. Here are some clips.
A full week after one of the strongest tropical cyclones in world history devastated the Philippines, the full extent of the death and destruction wrought by Super Typhoon Haiyan is still not fully known, nor do we have actual ground measurements of the storm's peak winds and lowest pressure.
What was Haiyan's lowest pressure?
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) estimated that Haiyan's central pressure was 895 mb at landfall, which would make it the 12th strongest tropical cyclone in world history (by pressure.)
How strong were Haiyan's winds at initial landfall in Guiuan?
Haiyan's strongest winds occurred on the south shore of Samar Island and the city of Guiuan (population 47,000), where the super typhoon initially made landfall with 1-minute average winds estimated at 195 mph. This estimate came from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), and was based on satellite measurements. We have no ground level or hurricane hunter measurements to verify this estimate. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which uses their own techniques to estimate typhoon strength via satellite imagery, put Haiyan's peak strength at 125 knots (145 mph), using a 10-minute averaging time for wind speeds. The averaging time used by JTWC and NHC is 1-minute, resulting in a higher wind estimate than the 10-minute average winds used by JMA and PAGASA in their advisories. To convert from 10-minute averaged winds to 1-minute average, one conversion factor that is commonly used is to multiply by 1.14--though lower conversion factors are sometimes used. JMA satellite strength estimates are consistently much lower than those from JTWC for high-end Category 5 strength typhoons; JTWC estimates are the ones most commonly used by the hurricane research community. A searchable database going back to 1976 of the JMA typhoon information available at Digital Typhoon reveals that Haiyan is tied for second place as the strongest typhoon that JMA has rated, and was the strongest land falling typhoon, when measured by wind speed. The only typhoon they rated as stronger was Super Typhoon Tip of 1979, but that storm weakened to Category 1 strength before making landfall in Japan.