Wintery mix ahead, no Indian Summer in 2013?

Those of us wanting Indian Summer this year may have to settle for “Indian Spring.”

Sunday’s 58 degree high in the metro was the warmest day in 10 days, and maybe the warmest of the rest of the year. But there are signs that we may return to the 50s yet again before the snow flies for real.

Speaking of snow, is that a little slush in the (metro) forecast for Tuesday morning? Yes. But we can be thankful warmer air will filter in and change any precip back to all rain tomorrow.

(Image: Weatherspark)

There will be enough slushy snow to shovel in the western Dakotas again this week.

(Image: Rapid City NWS)

Here’s a  look at how the forecast snowfall lays out this week according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale  model.

(Image: NOAA via wxcaster.com)

The NAM is aggressive, and probably overdone for Minnesota. But I can’t rule our a couple inches of slush west of the metro Tuesday morning as close as Willmar.

(Image: NOAA via wxcaster.com)

Late October Panhandle Hook

If this were December we’d be busting out headlines for 6 inches to 12 inches of snow this week. The incoming low pressure system is tracking from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region toward the Upper Midwest by Thursday morning.

(Image: Twin Cities NWS)

It looks like mostly rain for Minnesota this week. Overall rainfall totals look to be mostly between  a quarter inch and three quarters of an inch with some 1 inch-plus totals possible under the heavier rain band that roll in Wednesday evening.

(Image: Iowa State University)

The heaviest rains will fall to the south, where some drought busting 2 inch to 4 inch rainfall totals may drench parts of Iowa and the Midwest. Here’s NOAA’s 3 day rainfall forecast.

(Image: NOAA)

No Indian Summer in 2013?

Late October sky.  (Image: MPR News/Paul Huttner)

We all look forward to the last surge of warmth this time of year, Believe it or not, Indian Summer does not occur every year in Minnesota.

Here’s the definition of Indian Summer from the American Meteorological Society.

Indian summer

A period, in mid- or late autumn, of abnormally warm weather, generally clear skies, sunny but hazy days, and cool nights.
In New England, at least one killing frost and preferably a substantial period of normally cool weather must precede this warm spell in order for it to be considered a true “Indian summer.” It does not occur every year, and in some years there may be two or three Indian summers.
The term is most often heard in the northeastern United States, but its usage extends throughout English- speaking countries. It dates back at least to 1778, but its origin is not certain; the most probable suggestions relate it to the way that the American Indians availed themselves of this extra opportunity to increase their winter stores.
The comparable period in Europe is termed the Old Wives’ summer, and, poetically, may be referred to as halcyon days. In England, dependent upon dates of occurrence, such a period may be called St. Martin’s summerSt. Luke’s summer, and formerly All-hallown summer.
We may have to settle for a sort of “Indian Spring” in November. I think the 60s and 70s are toast for this year, but there are signs that temps may rebound into the 50s again. Here’s the Global Forecast System’s take on temps as we move into November.
55 degrees on Nov. 10? I’ll take it.