What was that blue smudge on my doppler this morning?
A band of light snow drifted through central Minnesota early today. The Twin Cities was largely saved from snowflakes, but the snow fell at several reporting sites in western and central Minnesota. It’s nothing to write home about, but the first flakes of the season fell today for many Minnesotans. Here are the snowy surface reports from the Twin Cities National Weather Service.
I can’t rule out a few snow or sleet showers for the Twin Cities today, but nothing to get too excited about. It is late October in Minnesota after all.
Bigger storm gathers to the south
The main storm is cranking up in the southern Great Plains, and will move north over the next 2 days. here’s the Global Forecast System model forecast, which brings the surface low and steadier rains into Minnesota by Wednesday night.
Major Halloween week soaker
The storm in the central Plains will bring widespread heavy rainfall totals this week. Some 2 to 4 inch totals will be common frm Iowa through Missouri, Arkansas and into Texas.
The latest Euro and GFS model runs keep a shot at showers in Halloween night. Temps in the 40s will make for a chilly Halloween night this year.
Here’s a great look at historical Halloween weather from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group
Halloween is typically a time of crunchy leaves on the ground, and a bit of chill in the air. High temperatures in the Twin Cities are generally in the 40’s and 50’s. It is more common for the daily high on Halloween to be in the 60’s than in the 30’s. 70’s tend to be a bit rare, with only eight Halloween high temperatures being 70 degrees or above.
The warmest Halloween on record was 83 degrees in 1950, with the second coldest maximum temperature on record arriving one year later with a high of 30 in 1951.
The coldest Halloween maximum temperature was a chilly 26 degrees back in 1873. The last fifteen years have had some balmy Halloween afternoons with a 71 degrees in 2000, and some quite cool ones as well with a 34 in 2002. There hasn’t been a Halloween washout since 1997.
‘Earliest’ last 60 degree high in the Twin Cities?
Scanning the weather maps these days, it’s hard to come up with a scenario where we hit 60 degrees again in the metro. We may get close as we move into November as temps favor the 50s, but reaching 60 degrees is no guarantee.
If we don’t see another 60 degree temp this year, it will tie the record for the ‘earliest’ last 60 degree high in the Twin Cities.
Did the Twin Cities have the last 60 degree high temperature for the season?
On October 13, the mercury reached 61 degrees at the Twin Cities International Airport and has stayed below the 60 mark ever since. If the Twin Cities does not have another 60 degree (or warmer) high temperature for the rest of the year, 2013 will tie with 1880 for having the earliest final 60 degree high temperature. This is for records that begin in 1872. The long term mean is November 6.
Looking at past statistics, there is historically a good chance of seeing a 60 degree temperature sometime in November. For the 1981-2010 normal period there was a 60 degree temperature in 18 of 30 years or 60% of the time.
There were also three Decembers that had a temperature of 60 degrees or 10% of the time. In all three of these Decembers there was also at least one 60 degree temperature in November.
In recent years, at least one day in November has reached 60 degrees, with the last time a day in November failed to reach 60 was in 2003. The year with the most 60 degree November temperatures was 2001 with 13 days.