Instant fall ahead, much colder and wetter pattern just 36 hours away
Buckle up. It looks like we're in for a bumpier ride as we head through the first week in October.
Out: Warm sunny days and dry skies.
In: Periods of rain and temps running 20 to 25 degrees cooler
We enjoy two more days of blissful late summer-like weather through tomorrow. Then the other weather shoe drops, and it's a big one. The weather maps by late this week look downright "autumnal." The end of summer as we know it?
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Absolutely.
+5.2 degrees temps vs. average in September at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport
3 days at or above 90 degrees in September (average = 1 day)
19 days at or above 90 this summer at MSP (average = 13 days)
59 degrees - warmest temp forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model after Thursday for the next two weeks
2 more days of "summer" in 2013?
Could this really be it? It sure looks that way on the maps. Here's the good news. Today and tomorrow will be almost perfect for any outdoor activities in Minnesota with temps a good 10 to 15 degrees above average in the Upper Midwest.
Large storm system
Our incoming storm will cover a lot of territory. Strong north-south temperature contrasts build in October, and that can spin up some bigger storms. Here's the GFS output which winds up an impressive low in Iowa by Saturday evening with a strong northeast wind that may exceed 30 miles per hour and areas heavy rain over Minnesota.
Rain arrives tomorrow night
The now well advertised fall storm will push into Minnesota by Wednesday night. The first waves of rain will probably approach the metro by around 10 p.m. The latest indications are rain may come in three main waves. This will be a long duration weather system lasting at least three days and possibly lingering into Sunday morning.
Rainfall totals from the system looks widespread and will cover the Eastern Dakotas, most of Minnesota and Wisconsin. I could see widespread 1 inch to 2 inch+ rainfall totals, with some isolated 3 inch+ amounts. That's good news if you're trying to crawl out of a drought.
October: Colder and wetter than average?
NOAA's early read on October is for another warmer than average month.
Looking at the weather maps I just don't buy it.
After Wednesday the upper air pattern favors cooler than average temps for the foreseeable future. NOAA's 16-day GFS model looks right to me with the notion that Wednesday's 70 degree temps in the metro may be the last for at least two weeks, and possibly longer. In fact, the 16-day GFS does not bring a temp above -- gulp -- 60 degrees to the metro starting this weekend through Oct. 17.
At this point, it looks like the fall of 2013 will arrive abruptly. Get out and enjoy the next 36 hours!