Warm bias lingers through Friday, rain by Saturday

Our September to remember kicks into high gear the next few days.

5-day Weather Synopsis

Warm southerly breezes increase Thursday, and temps will push toward the 80 degree mark both Thursday and Friday in a good chunk of southern Minnesota. Some much needed rainfall moves into Minnesota Friday and Saturday. The timing could be better, but we need rain.

+4 degrees temps vs. average in Minnesota so far in September

-1.18 inches rainfall vs. average at MSP Airport in September

Image: Twin Cities NWS

Alaska-Minnesota Connection

Why do weather forecasters in Minnesota watch trends in Alaskan weather? When it’s cold in Alaska it’s usually warm in Minnesota. That’s just the way weather systems space themselves around the northern hemisphere.

The big picture?

A powerful ‘Aleutian Low’ has been pumping wind, rain and snow into parts of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest the past few days. Parts of Alaska are seeing the season’s 1st frost.

Image: Alaska NWS

As the Alaskan Low low pushes east toward the Pacific Northwest, waves of rain ahead of this wrapped up low will dump heavy 5″ to 10″ along the Washington and northern Oregon Coasts in the next few days.

Image: NOAA Weather Prediction Center

A small chunk of this system breaks off and heads for Minnesota Friday and Saturday. NOAA’s 5 day forecast suggests some 1″+ rainfall totals in north central Minnesota…with lesser amounts as you move east toward the metro.

The big western lows act as warm pumps for the central US. Sustained southerly breezes keep mild air flowing north. High near 80 push north Thursday into the Upper Midwest.

Image: NOAA

The warmth comes with a price this time of year. You need sustained southerly winds to get highs int he 80s in late September. Southerly wind gusts could push 30 mph in much of Minnesota Thursday.

Image: NOAA Forecast wind gusts Thursday.

Clouds and rain mean a cooler weather speed bump Saturday with temps probably holding in the 60s. The mild trend resumes next week with temps pushing back into the 70s.

Image: European model data via Weatherspark

The longer range forecast shows no signs of a killing frost in the inner metro core just yet…but lows in the upper 30s closer by around October 10-11th.

Image: NOAA GFS 16-day model output via IPS Meteostar

Stay tuned.