Summery 80s return; In search of rain

Drying Up

Our late summer warmth into September is great if you’re looking for an extended dose of summer. Not so much if you’re a farmer looking for rain. No bad weather, just different kinds of good weather?

Our dry spell that began in July continues this week. We’re down about 3 inches vs. average in rainfall since July 1st in much of Minnesota. Prospects for relief and significant rainfall look slim until Sunday at least.

Thursday’s updated U.S. Drought Monitor will show drought’s grip tightening on Minnesota. Last week 54.9 percent of Minnesota was in moderate drought. Look for that number to be closer to 60 percent or 70 percent this week.

Image: U.S. Drought Monitor

Some lucky spots in northern Minnesota did tally an inch or two of rain this past week. In the south rainfall has been scarce with most areas under .25 inch total. Here’s the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service seven-day rainfall tally.

Image: NOAA AHPS

The next best chance for a soaking rain comes Sunday into Monday.  NOAA is bullish on coverage from the latest set of model runs.  I’m not so sure.

Image: NOAA

Still a half inch to one inch would be barely enough to keep us from slipping deeper into drought. We need a few days of good soaking rain and right now I don’t see that on the horizon.

Summer Rerun: Pushing 90 by Friday?

Our September summer kicks in this week and temps may hit 90 in southern Minnesota and the metro by Friday afternoon.

Image: NOAA

Longer Range: Warm and Dry?

Heres’ the outlook through 16 days from NOAA’s operational Global Forecast System model. Note the lack of moisture and highs in the 80s up to September 20!

Image: NOAA GFS via IPS Meteostar

The latest outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center keeps things warmer than average for the next 2 weeks.

Image: NOAA CPC