September ‘hot front’ today: Record highs in upper 90s possible

Our last real heat wave of 2013 may be a 12-hour affair.

A potent warm front blew in today with some scattered morning thunder and rain. Meaningful multi inch rains fell in central Minnesota in the past 24 hours, and scattered storms will bring more beneficial rainfall in northeastern Minnesota today.

Heres’ the latest “live” Duluth radar and Twin Cities radar loop.

South of the warm front soaring temps should reach the upper 90s to near 100 in southern Minnesota by late afternoon. The clouds should break this afternoon ,and assuming we get enough sunshine we’ll “enjoy”  one last lazy hazy crazy summer day in 2013. Today will be our 19th day at or above 90 degrees this year in the Twin Cities. If we manage to hit 99 today (which is possible) it will be the hottest day of 2013.

95 degrees – Record high today at MSP Airport (set in 1947)

95 to 99 degrees - Forecast high today depending on amount of afternoon sunshine

19 days at or above 90 degrees in the metro this year

13 days – Average number of 90 degree days at MSP

+5.7 degrees vs. average at MSP so far in September

Image: Twin Cities NWS

Today’s “hot front” will push as far north as St. Cloud. Look for highs in the upper 90s…and I won’t be shocked to see a 100 degree temp or two in southern Minnesota (and even near the metro) by around 4-5 p.m. today. In fact, the “thermal ridge” or hottest band sets up shop right over the metro this afternoon. If we get enough sun, temps could approach 100 degrees, and that would be the hottest day this year. We hit 98 on May 14th.

Image: NOAA

Heat Advisories are flying for the metro today.

Image: Twin Cities NWS

From the National Weather Service:

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
942 PM CDT SUN SEP 8 2013

…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY… * TEMPERATURE: AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 96 TO 102.

* IMPACTS: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESS… ESPECIALLY FOR THE YOUNG AND ELDERLY…THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING…AND PEOPLE PARTICIPATING IN STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

…SURGE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON…

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO 96 TO 102 DEGREES…AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WESTERN WISCONSIN BY THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM.

THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY.

If you love hot weather, enjoy, because looking at the maps I’d say there is a 50/50 shot today will be our last 90 degree day this year. I still see a warm bias the next 2 weeks overall and it looks like we’ll enjoy several more days in the mid and even upper 80s, but 90s will be harder to come by.

Cool Front Ahead: Fall arrives this week on the weather maps

It will be a slow slide, but fall like temps will be here by late this week. The Euro model is the most aggressive, with highs in the 60s by next weekend.

Image: Euro model via Weatherspark.

In the longer range it looks like temps will rebound again. Here’s the GFS which brings highs back into the 70s…and even 80s down the road.

Image: NOAA via IPS Meteostar

NOAA’s CPC agrees with the trend for milder…and hopefully wetter than average weather into late September.

Image: NOAA Image: NOAA
  • Presley Martin

    Still only 73 and thick overcast at almost 11AM. I find it hard to believe that the temp. is going to rise 20+ degrees in the next five hours. I predict no higher than 87 today.