Another year of busted hurricane forecasts in “Hurricane Drought” of 2013?

Summer Cameo

Minnesotans tend to recognize Labor Day the unofficial end of summer. I often remind the many who ask that the best two months of weather in Minnesota are often still ahead… September and October. Do you enjoy warm sunny days and cool nights? Do you relish the thought of a bug free evening?

This is the best time of year for many.

Our summer cameo last all week with highs running above average. We could use a shot of rain…but right now I don’t see anything significant in sight. Indeed as I posted earlier today…the outlook for September is warm and dry.

A weak cool front will bring some slightly cooler temps by Thursday…but temps surge with a shot at 90 again by Friday.

Image: Red River Valley NWS

A string of upper 80s and temps near 90 is looking likely he next week to 10 days. Here’s’ the warm forecast data from the European model.

Image: Euro data via Weatherspark

Hurricane Forecasts 2013: Another bust year?

I’ve talked and written about this before…I’m not a fan of the seasonal “hurricane forecasts” put out each year by NOAA, CSU and others. The skill scores are abysmal over time. Even a good seasonal forecast for hurricane numbers tells us nothing about how many…if any hurricanes will make landfall in the US….and how strong and where they will hit. I would much rather see NOAA put additional resources into short term hurricane forecasts and model upgrades which have great value. The superior European (ECMWF) model was the first to lock onto Hurricane Sandy’s destructive path last fall, and far outperformed NOAA’s models.

Image: NOAA

That’s why I’m not surprised that the “active” hurricane forecast so far for 2013 have a high bust potential. This is the first year in 11 years without a hurricane developing through August…a sign of a slow season to be sure. More details from Bloomberg.

No Atlantic Hurricane by August in First Time in 11 Years

August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.

Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic, a measure of tropical power, is about 30 percent of where it normally would be, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts.

“At this point, I doubt that a super-active hurricane season will happen,” Klotzbach said in an e-mail yesterday.

The most active part of the Atlantic season runs from Aug. 20 to about the first week of October. The statistical peak occurs on Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Two storms formed in August and the hurricane center is tracking two areas of thunderstorms that have low to medium chances of becoming tropical systems within five days.

There is still every chance that hurricane activity will pick up in September and October. As we saw with Sandy, it only takes one bad storm to cause hundreds of billions in damage. Let’s hope the season stays quiet.