Summer sequel this week; 90s ahead; Severe risk Wednesday?

“Wurzer Weather”

That’s what I lovingly call our hot humid summer spells in honor of my MPR colleague Morning Edition Host Cathy Wurzer. Cathy loves it warm. It’s her favorite kind of Minnesota weather. If you see her smiling at the State Fair you’ll know why.

Our late August warm front gurgles into Minnesota today with a few spotty morning showers and even some thunderstorms along the North Shore. Nothing severe expected today, but a cool front diving south Wednesday may spark a few strong storms.

The front may be just enough to stave off the heat for the opening day or two of the Minnesota State Fair Thursday and Friday.

The weekend may be another story with a return to hot and increasingly humid weather conditions. Yes the 90s are back this week. The only questions appear to be how hot? And how long?

Image: Twin Cities NWS

Hot Front 

Summer’s last gasp may be a long one. Heat builds this week as an upper ridge of high pressure cranks up over the central plains and nudges north into Minnesota.

Image: NOAA GFS Model upper air chart for Sunday.

There heat may come in two pulses. The first wave comes Tuesday and Wednesday.  A cool front breaks the heat temporarily Thursday and Friday. Then an even hotter surge of air moves in next weekend that could push temps into the mid-90s. Here’s the “meteogram” with forecast temps and dew points from Weatherspark.

Heat builds this week. A brief cool front may bring some relief Thursday and Friday. Image: Norwegian Met Institute data via Weatherspark.

By next weekend NOAA’s GFS model suggests temps hot as 95 degrees with dew points approaching 70. That would be noticeable, even unbearable heat for some strolling around the Fair by next weekend.  Mornings and evenings could be the best time to make your visit this year. Keep a lemonade stand close by.

Image: NOAA via IPS Meteostar

Heat Wave Lasts

The longer range pattern suggests our late summer heat surge could last into September. Here’s more from the GFS model, which cranks out highs between 85 and 95 degrees right through September 3.

Image: NOAA GFS data via IPS Meteostar

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows the warmth favoring the northern tier for the next 14 days. Payback for an early August cool spell?

Image: NOAA CPC

Wednesday Severe Risk?

A cool front sliding south form Canada will trigger some storms Wednesday. There is a slight risk a few could turn severe. Here’s the convective outlook from NOAA.

Image: NOAA