‘Seesaw summer’ of 2013: Late August heat surge; “Warm bias” ahead for fall temps?

Desperately seeking “average”

It’s been a wild weather year in Minnesota. January started quiet. Then came February and a constant barrage of snow blitzes that lasted into May.

Our reluctant start to summer finally gave way to warmth June 16 — a full 6 weeks of summer before somebody flipped the weather switch back to “pre-fall” in late July and early August.

Now, just when you can hear the natives getting restless as the State Fair and Labor Day loom on the horizon…the switch is about to flip back to summer mode. It looks like we’ll finally (enjoy?) a prolonged string of lazy, hazy, crazy late summer days in the last half of August.

Just in time to save the Summer of 2013.

Now some indicators point to a potentially warm fall. Stay tuned.

535 wxs2

Postcard perfect weekend

It doesn’t get any better than this folks. This may be the best weekend of summer. Lazy high pressure drifting east brings a return southerly flow and gradual warming trend.  Plenty of sun and highs in the 80? Cue the brass band, beach-goers and lemonade stands.

Image: Twin Cities NWS

Late August heat surge kicks in next week

The blissfully “summeresque” weekend weather gives way to a late August heat wave next week. Temperatures appear ready to soar into the 90s as early as Tuesday and Wednesday, with dew points in the muggy upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

Here’s the Weatherspark “meteogram” for the next few days loaded with data from the European model.

Image: Norwegian Met Institute via Weatherspark

Prolonged and intense heat?

It’s one thing to warm up to near 90 degrees. It’s quite another to hit 95 with dew points near 70. There are some indicators our transition to hotter temps next week may stick around through August and into early September. Here’s the Global Forecast System 16-day temperature and dew point output from the National Weather Service, which keeps the heat going up to Sept. 1.

Image: NOAA GFS via IPS Meteostar

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center agrees.

Image: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Keep the AC unit tuned up and ready into Labor Day weekend this year folks.

Seesaw summer of 2013

The radical flips from cool to hot have been a trademark of this summer. Average? What’s that? The Twin Cities NWS has a nice graph that displays the all or nothing trends.

535 wxs seesaw

Warm Fall of 2013?

What I’m seeing lately on the maps and the longer term Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation trends leads me to believe that September is likely to be warmer than average in Minnesota. Could summery weather last until at least Sept. 15 this year?

NOAA’s CPC seems to be locking on to trends that may favor a warmer than average fall for the Great Lakes and parts of the Upper Midwest — including eastern Minnesota. Here’s the new seasonal temp outlook issued Thursday.

NOAA’s CPC 3 month outlook favors warmer than average temps for the Great Lakes.

Summer into fall in 2013? After this crazy year, we’ll take it.