Nice August weekend; Rain and thunder returns Monday

Good Timing

Timing is everything, and this weekend it looks like the weather will finally cooperate with many Minnesotans days off.

A weekend with mixed sun, low humidity and temp in the upper 70s in early August? We’ll take it and run with it.

Summer time lake water temps have already peaked this year, but with most lake temps in southern Minnesota still in the mid-70s the water is plenty warm for a day at the beach. Tee times and bike rides should go off without a hitch.

Our overall weather pattern still looks like early September, but the jet stream has lifted a bit further north than last weekend’s record setting chill.

Rain and some thunder returns to the forecast Monday into early next week. The long range forecast looks fairly summer-like. No complaints from the weather department. Lawns and farm fields could use a good soaker at this point.

Image: Twin Cities NWS

Comfy weekend

A wedge of Canadian high pressure drifts overhead this weekend. That means mixed sun, little to no rain chances, low dew points in the 50s and comfy temps in the 70s. This will be a perfect weekend for just about anything “outdoor Minnesota.”

Image: Twin Cities NWS

Rain chances return Monday

The next front eases into Minnesota early next week. Scattered showers and T-Storms will move in as it approaches. The best chances for rain appears to be Monday. We could sue the watering, and most models suggest around .50″ Monday.

Image: NOAA via Iowa State University

The overall weather pattern still looks fairly dry, but rain chances have improved a bit for next week. Still, the heaviest rains will fall south of Minnesota. Here’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 7-day rainfall outlook from its Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Image: NOAA

The warmest day next week looks like Tuesday. 80s look likely. Note the absence of any real major heat in the Upper Midwest.

Image: NOAA

The longer range forecast features a cool front lat next week, but it doesn’t look like it will penetrate as far south as we thought a few days ago. 70s should be common late next week. Here’s the Euro take on the forecast.

Image: Norwegian Met Institute

 

There are still signs we may see a more extended run of 80s — even a shot at 90 after mid-August, possible just in time for the State Fair.

Stay tuned!

 

 

 

 

  • Albin

    I remember seeing this sort of thing in the spring. When the current weather is significantly different than the historic normal, then the forecast for 10 days out is for a return to the normal. It seems the weather models are only good for the next few days and with the uncertainty increasing as forecast goes farther into the future the models’ predictions are based more and more on historical data instead of current conditions inputs. For example, for about a week now, the 10 day forecast has said it would be cool for the next 7 days and then warmer. Every day the expected warmth gets a day further away.

    Note: I’m perhaps generalizing a bit too much but I think the principle is still true.