Free Sauna today; Severe Tuesday AM? Relief Wednesday; Heat returns next weekend?

Where’s the (nearest) beach?

Welcome to the Miami of the North. Our long awaited sweaty summer is here to stay for the foreseeable future with one exception. A welcome puff of cooler, more comfortable air Wednesday & Thursday.

We make a run at 90F today in the metro… the 6th day so far in 2013 of 90+F heat if we get there after a AM clouds. An average year brings 13 days of 90+ heat in the metro…and we sweated through 31 days last summer.

We can take it. Many Minnesotans say “bring it on!”

With tropical dew points in the upper 60s to near 70F nearby. As the Germans say…it will feel “close” out there today.

Tuesday brings a severe threat…another possible derecho roaring through Minnesota? Welcome relief arrives Wednesday & Thursday.

502 ql2

What could be looks like the longest, most persistent heatwave of  summer kicks in next weekend. The long range models are hinting at a potential string of 90+…may even mid-90s next week.

Stay tuned on that one. “Climatologically” the hottest 4 weeks of the year are ahead. Have you checked you AC lately?

Much more today on the blog, but here’s a Monday AM jump start to get you going.

Keep the weather radio handy Tuesday.

Steamy Monday

It’s an interesting weather map today.

A batch of clouds and cooler/drier air has filtered south behind a weak front from Lake Superior. Here’s a look at the “mesoanalysis”  with winds and dew points over the GOES 1km visible satellite shot from the College of Dupage.

Cloud deck sags south. Image: NOAA via College of Dupage

 

The leading edge of the cloud deck will stall over southern Minnesota today…then gradually burn off as sun and winds eat away at the southern end. If the sun breaks out soon enough the Twin Cities will have no problem logging day #6 of 90 degree heat this year. If not…we may enjoy a “cooler” day in the upper 80s.

Severe Tuesday

The next strong upper levels wave and cool front heads for Minnesota Tuesday.

As the system cuts into hot humid air mass over Minnesota, the risk of severe T-Storms increases. NOAA’s SPC has pasted a slight risk over Minnesota Tuesday.

Image: NOAA SPC

The highest risk for severe storms is south of Minnesota…but the folks in Norman, OK are using some highlighted wording regarding the threat for more “bowing line segments” in Minnesota Tuesday.

A 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any point for Iowa & Wisconsin Tuesday> Image: NOAA SPC

 GREAT LAKES AREA…AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MCSS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF ND INTO NRN MN AND ANOTHER FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AND SRN MN. THE IA MCS WILL EXIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD /PARTIALLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED/VORT MAX AND ITS ATTENDANT STRONGER WIND FIELDS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. HOWEVER WITH RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE…EVEN MODEST DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE FROM WI INTO MI. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THE MCV AND ONGOING MCS INTERACT WITH THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE MCV WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND…LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO EXISTS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

The GFS and NAM models favor a developing MCS in South Dakota tonight that could race east through southern Minnesota early Tuesday AM. Best timing for a strong/severe batch of metro storms may be early Tuesday morning. We’ll have to keep an eye on the potential for developing storms for Tuesday AM rush in the metro. There may be some redevelopment Wednesday afternoon as the cool front pushes in.

Free AC: Cool front brings delightful air mass by Wednesday

The storms will push east Tuesday night, and a cool front delivers a fresh northwest breeze and delightful air mass for Wednesday & Thursday.

NAM model shows fresh Canadian high pressure Wednesday. Image: NOAA

Dew points should fall into the comfy 50s Wednesday & Thursday, with high temps in the low 80s. Good sleeping weather returns to Minnesota by mid-week.

Image: NOAA via Iowa State University

 Heat returns next weekend?

The longer range weather maps seem to favor a return to heat…and humidity by next weekend.

The GFS went whole hog last night with a developing heat dome from the Desert Southwest into Iowa and southern Minnesota by next weekend.

NOAA’s GFS favors developing heat dome by next weekend. Image: NOAA

The often trusty Euro model says not so fast…and keeps the core of the developing heatwave south of Minnesota with a strong of summery…but tolerable days in the mid-upper 80s.

Image: Norwegian Met Institute

I don’t fully buy into the GFS heatwave just yet…let’s see what the models do this week.

Tropical Storm Chantal Brews:

Named storm #3 is alive and well in the tropical Atlantic.

Chantal is expected to retain at least tropical storm status, and head for the Bahamas by this weekend.

Image: NOAA NHC

It’s mid-July and that means hurricane season is hitting high gear over the next month. The best odds of a full blown hurricane in the Atlantic? September 10th…the “climatological peak” of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Image: NHC

Will we have another Sandy or Katrina this year?

Stay tuned.

Paul Huttner